2024 Predictions Review

The Property Nomads Podcast

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2M ago 7:21

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Rob reflects on his property finance and macro predictions for 2024, assessing the accuracy of each forecast made at the beginning of the year. The predictions covered a range of topics, including gold prices, the Bank of England's base rate, the commercial property market, house prices, oil prices, and a wildcard prediction regarding the U.S. presidential election...

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The prediction that gold would hit $2,500 was accurate, with gold peaking at $2,800 later in the year, marking it as one of the best-performing assets.
The expectation that the Bank of England would increase its base rate to at least 7% was incorrect, as the rate remained significantly lower, around 4.5% to 4.75%.
The prediction of a collapse in the commercial property market did not materialise, as the market remained stable in the UK despite some global concerns.
The forecast that house prices would increase by 5% year-on-year was also incorrect, with data showing a slight decline of 0.3% compared to the previous month.

BEST MOMENTS

"The first prediction was that gold would hit $2,500 amid economic meltdown. Now, I'm going to give myself a point for this because gold certainly hit $2,500 at the latter end of the year."

"The second prediction was that the Bank of England would increase its base rate to at least 7%. This is completely incorrect. I haven't fared well with this."

"The third prediction was that the commercial property market collapses. Again, I have to give myself a big X on the spot for that one. That hasn't happened."

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