Dot-Plot Danger and QT Limits

Notes on the Week Ahead

This week, investors will be focused on the Fed’s second Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year. They are widely expected to make no change in interest rates. However, Fed communications will provide guidance on two important subjects: First, they will update their summary of economic projections and their “dot-plot” forecast for the federal funds rate. Second, and particularly in Chairman Powell’s press conference, they will likely provide some further hints on when and how they could begin to phase out quantitative tightening. While their messaging will likely continue to point towards monetary easing in the months ahead, the implied timing and extent of that easing could have major impact on markets.