Why Did Soybeans RALLY on Monday??

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Hey everyone! 👋 We’ve got a lot to cover today, including a sharp rally in soybean futures, planting delays in Brazil, and some surprising political announcements from Donald Trump. Plus, we’ll check out the latest US crop conditions and export sales. Let’s dive in! 🚀👇
🌾 Soybean Futures Surge
On Monday, soybean futures rallied sharply! The Nov24 contract gained 27 cents per bushel, marking its best close since early August. Here's why:
📊 Fund buying and concerns over dry weather in Brazil fueled the rally.
Private estimates suggest funds bought 20k soybean contracts, 30k corn contracts, and 5k SRW wheat contracts. Despite harvest season, hedge pressure has been light, giving markets room to rise.
☀️ Brazil Soybean Planting Delays
Brazil is struggling with hot and dry weather, which continues to hinder soybean planting. Here’s the latest from AgRural:
As of last Thursday, only 0.9% of the expected soybean area had been planted. Last year, at the same time, planting was at 1.9%.
🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Plans on John Deere & China
Donald Trump made some major headlines at a forum in Pennsylvania:
He plans to impose a 200% tariff on John Deere if the company moves production to Mexico. Earlier this year, Deere announced layoffs in the US and has been acquiring land in Mexico to shift some production.
🌽 US Corn & Soybean Conditions Hold Steady
The USDA reports that both corn and soybean conditions were unchanged last week: Corn: 65% rated good to excellent, matching expectations and marking the best rating for this week since 2018. 🏆 About 14% of the crop has been harvested so far. Soybeans: 64% rated good to excellent, also the best rating for this week since 2018. About 13% of the crop has been harvested.
🌾 Winter Wheat Planting Progress
US winter wheat planting is progressing steadily:
25% of the crop was planted by Sunday, up from 14% the previous week. States like CO, MT, NE, SD, and WA are leading the way with 30% or more of their crops planted.
🚢 Strong US Export Shipments
US corn shipments were impressive last week:
The USDA reported 1.1mmt (43 million bushels) of corn inspected for export, up 94% from the prior week and 55% compared to last year.
Soybean shipments were 485,216mt (18 million bushels), a slight increase of 2.5%, though down 4.5% from last year.
Wheat shipments hit 711,073mt (26 million bushels), beating expectations and up 21% from last week.
🚨 USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans
The USDA reported a flash sale of 165,000mt (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year.
👇 Stay Informed!
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