Sit's Doty says meaningful rate cuts aren't coming until 2025

The NAVigator

Bryce Doty, Senior Portfolio Manager at Sit Investment Associates, says the uptick in inflation is not enough to overwhelm the yields investors are earning, noting that real returns may be better than ever. He says investors should enjoy collecting the high yields while interest rates remain high, and while total returns should improve once cuts start, investors will have to wait for that to happen. Doty does not expect meaningful rate cuts this year -- he anticipates two reductions, one after the election -- but says that the long-term average gap between the Fed funds rate and inflation is well above its typical zero, so the central bank can cut rates and have a positive gap, meaning it can claim to be tough even as reductions start. Doty anticipates the important cuts -- the ones which narrow that gap back to near zero -- will occur in 2025.