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#186 David Woo, Economist Who Nailed 2016 And 2020 Election Outcomes, Explains Why The Market Has The Trump Trades Wrong
Manage episode 430350730 series 3510102
Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 186 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics, including the attempted assassination on former President Trump and why the market has the so-called Trump trades all wrong.
This episode was recorded on Friday, July 19.
Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).
Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo
01:25 Big picture macro view
03:00 Geopolitical update
04:10 Trump trades
06:53 Election is not over yet
08:01 Assassination attempt and the risk of another attempt
11:15 JD Vance
15:20 Finding a replacement to Biden
18:45 2025 will have nothing to do with 2017
22:44 Challenges in financing tax cuts, tariffs, and potential for a global trade war
25:50 Collecting taxes on big tech companies doing business outside the US would be bearish for stocks
28:00 Trump will face a massive budget deficit and why he's not that bullish for bitcoin
28:50 Trump 1.0 vs. Trump 2.0 economy
30:30 If Trump wins, he'll inherit a huge mess from Biden
35:41 Immigration
40:31 The ultimate Trump trades are defensive trades
44:30 Betting on a recession
50:37 Generative AI is a bubble that will trigger a recession
56:55 Parting thoughts
217 つのエピソード
Manage episode 430350730 series 3510102
Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 186 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics, including the attempted assassination on former President Trump and why the market has the so-called Trump trades all wrong.
This episode was recorded on Friday, July 19.
Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).
Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo
01:25 Big picture macro view
03:00 Geopolitical update
04:10 Trump trades
06:53 Election is not over yet
08:01 Assassination attempt and the risk of another attempt
11:15 JD Vance
15:20 Finding a replacement to Biden
18:45 2025 will have nothing to do with 2017
22:44 Challenges in financing tax cuts, tariffs, and potential for a global trade war
25:50 Collecting taxes on big tech companies doing business outside the US would be bearish for stocks
28:00 Trump will face a massive budget deficit and why he's not that bullish for bitcoin
28:50 Trump 1.0 vs. Trump 2.0 economy
30:30 If Trump wins, he'll inherit a huge mess from Biden
35:41 Immigration
40:31 The ultimate Trump trades are defensive trades
44:30 Betting on a recession
50:37 Generative AI is a bubble that will trigger a recession
56:55 Parting thoughts
217 つのエピソード
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