The DC Today - Tuesday, March 12, 2024

The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3wT2REd

A positive trading day in stocks with a fresh new read on CPI that was largely in line with expectations, with both Headline and Core up .4% for the month of February. While these are close to the same print we got in January that caused our 1.5% selloff, February’s read was priced in at this point, and if anything, more reaffirmed that the prior month ticking higher was more a one-off than a new longer-term trend. Yields were modestly higher across the curve, and Fed futures are at 60% for a June rate cut at this point. There is plenty of data from now until then, but all things being equal, our disinflation narrative remains intact.

A quick state of the US labor force:

• Total Labor force participation rate total 16+ years at 62% = Not Great
• Labor force participation rate amongst 25-54 Yr. old’s at 83% = Great
• Labor force participation rate amongst 55+ at 38% = Abysmal (the chart fell off a cliff in the pandemic and hasn’t recovered)
• Total US Labor Force at a total of 160MM employed = Good

The overall participation rate is still historically low at 62% (67%+ would be cooking with grease). Demographically however, with still positive population growth in the US, compared to declining population numbers in some other parts of the world (i.e. Europe, Japan, China), there is an advantage.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com