"When Markets Speak" – with Larry McDonald, CEO, Bear Traps Report

The Bob Johnston Podcast

Summary

In the course of this in-depth conversation, Larry McDonald – author of How to Listen When Markets Speak and CEO of Bear Traps Report – delves deep into the financial insights acquired from his global network, discussing the major economic shifts and their impact on financial markets, as captured in his latest book. His intention is to democratize financial information, moving away from traditional, bank-dominated imprints on markets. This democratization is partly driven by technological advancements that increase access to critical financial data. Our conversation broadens into the implications of recent economic upheavals such as the COVID-19 pandemic, hinting at persistent inflation and the need for strategic financial planning, going forward.

We further explore passive investing's role in current market dynamics, highlighting how long-term disinflationary trends have buoyed such investments, which now face risks from potential normalization of inflation rates. Larry is rightly concerned about heavy investments in financial assets like growth stocks and bonds, favored from 2010 to 2020, that might not perform well under high inflation. Our conversation then transitions into a review of macroeconomic trends, government debt, and the implications of current fiscal and monetary policies. Each topic uncovers deeper concerns about the sustainability of current financial strategies and the potential need for drastic changes in the face of evolving global economic conditions, such as shifts towards multipolarity and its impact on commodity markets.
Finally, we dig into some of Larry's go-to websites and resources for information and news. Enjoy!

Larry's Bio

Larry McDonald, a New York Times bestselling author and a seasoned CNBC contributor, excels as a Political Risk Expert. He founded The Bear Traps Report, an independent weekly Macro Research Platform that delves into global political and systemic risks, providing subscribers with actionable trading insights. Larry is renowned for his ability to intertwine humor with critical analyses on topics such as the Trump Administration, the U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt issues, and the economic challenges facing China.

In 2016, Larry took on a partnership role at ACG Analytics in Washington D.C., leveraging his expertise as one of the foremost political policy risk consultants and strategists. His professional journey includes significant tenure as Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Société Générale from 2011 to 2016. Furthermore, he founded an investment research firm in 2010 that publishes The Bear Traps Report, focusing on political and systemic risks, complemented by actionable trading strategies. Larry is also a frequent presence on CNBC, where he discusses political and economic risks and opportunities.

Before his current endeavors, Larry McDonald made notable contributions to the finance world as Vice President at Lehman Brothers. There, he successfully led his team in capitalizing on the subprime mortgage crisis, securing over $2 billion in profits for the firm prior to its collapse. This experience formed the basis for his international bestseller, A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, which has been translated into 12 languages and sold over 400,000 copies. Earlier, Larry co-founded Convertbond.com, an innovative resource for convertible securities, which was later acquired by Morgan Stanley in 1999. His insights are not only sought after in financial circles but have also featured in documentaries such as the Academy Award-winning "Inside Job" and National Geographic’s "The 2000’s." Larry continues to contribute regularly to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Forbes, and Fox Business. His keynote speeches, which now exceed 125 worldwide.