Dream Podcast - NFL Week 13 THE PICKS !!

RJ Bell's Dream Preview

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL Week 13 betting. The guys break down all the Sunday games and give out best bets.

🏈 Team-by-Team Analysis

1. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

• Steve Fezzik (4:16-7:08): Advocates for Jacksonville at +5 due to their recent annihilation and historical resilience of teams off a bye. However, Scott Seidenberg counters with stats on poor post-bye performances by bad teams, highlighting a 5-12 ATS record since 2012 for similar scenarios.
• RJ Bell: Questions the efficacy of such trends, pointing to inconsistencies in Houston’s performance despite their above-average team power rating.

2. New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

• RJ Bell (13:21-17:22): Champions the Giants at +3.5, citing their overreaction to poor performance and historical motivation after a disappointing loss. Darius Slayton’s comments on Drew Lock's potential performance support this optimistic outlook.

3. Washington Commanders vs. Tennessee Titans

• Scott Seidenberg (19:53-24:28): Identifies a bounce-back trend where teams that lost as large favorites perform well in subsequent games, favoring Washington. The defense-led resurgence of the Commanders and historical stats (e.g., 16-7 ATS for teams favored by more than a field goal post-loss) bolster this pick.

4. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Mackenzie Rivers (40:01-47:22): Supports Cincinnati at -2.5, attributing value to Pittsburgh’s overachievements in one-score games. However, RJ Bell challenges this pick, emphasizing Pittsburgh’s historical resilience under Mike Tomlin and suggesting the line overvalues Cincinnati.

5. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Scott Seidenberg (1:00:49-1:04:08): Backs Philadelphia at +3, citing their defensive improvement post-bye (league-low 6.9 yards per pass allowed) and Jalen Hurts’ success with explosive plays. Baltimore’s vulnerability to deep passes aligns well with the Eagles’ offensive strengths.

6. Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns

• RJ Bell (1:12:04-1:16:22): Prefers Denver in the second half, believing Sean Payton’s coaching ensures focus even after a close win. The Browns’ recent high-intensity performance may lead to a letdown, especially given their limited playoff prospects.

📊 Key Player & Team Statistics

1. Texans’ Defense: High ATS performance before bye weeks; however, their overall defensive stats are inconsistent.
2. Giants’ Quarterback Shift: Drew Lock receives positive reviews for leadership and strong-arm capabilities, aiming to turn around poor team morale.
3. Commanders’ Defensive Coaching: Dan Quinn's strategic adjustments emphasize defensive fortitude, improving results.
4. Eagles’ Explosive Play Metrics: League leaders in completion percentage above expectation for deep passes, exploiting the Ravens' secondary vulnerabilities.
5. Broncos' Resilience: Strong post-loss focus under Sean Payton, leveraging key player performances like Russell Wilson.

🎙️ Highlighted Quotes and Timestamped Insights

1. Fezzik on Jacksonville's Spot (4:16): "I make the line 4.5, getting +5...winless teams off a bye historically do great."
2. Scott on Giants’ Redemption (17:23): "Darius Slayton...strong arm, good processor, played a lot of football."
3. Scott on Texans Bounce-Back (10:27): "Divisional favorites before a bye since 2012: 50-30-1 ATS, 62.5%."
4. RJ on Washington’s Focus (24:28): "Washington’s pre-bye game focus...shows why they’re a 16-7 ATS team in these spots."
5. Scott on Eagles’ Deep Ball Success (1:01:49): "Hurts leads the league in completion percentage on deep passes...exploiting Ravens’ 94 explosive plays allowed."

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