Post-Election Conversation: The Future of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Plan With The Tax Man

It's hard to believe that election season is over and Thanksgiving is almost here! This week on Plan with the Tax Man, we're diving into the future of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act now that the election results are in. Join us as we explore what changes could be on the horizon and what to expect moving forward.

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Transcript:

Speaker 1:

This week on Plan With The Tax Man, let's talk about the future of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the TCJA now that we know the results of the election. So let's get into what could be on the horizon in the coming years here this week on Plan With The Tax Man. Welcome into the podcast everybody. Thanks for hanging out with Tony Mauro and myself. Tony of course, a CPA, CFP, and EA with 30 plus years in the industry helping folks get to and through retirement. And he's at the Tax Doctor, Inc. You can find them online at yourplanningpros.com. That's yourplanningpros.com. And Tony, happy Thanksgiving, my friend. We are taping this a little before and dropping this podcast just a few days before Thanksgiving. So happy Turkey Bird Day to you, my friend.

Tony Mauro:

Yeah, same to you and everybody else.

Speaker 1:

Absolutely.

Tony Mauro:

It's getting that time of year.

Speaker 1:

Absolutely. Exactly.

Tony Mauro:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

So hope everybody enjoys the holiday and hopefully we're just going to do a little speculation here this week, Tony. We know now, obviously President Trump is the, Trump President-elect, right, coming in here in January. And so one of the big questions and one of the big things I think that has people, especially in our demographic and the people that you serve and your clientele is what that might mean for the future of tax cuts. Right. So all through the Biden administration, we kind of wondered were they going to make any tax cuts changes or tax rate changes or anything. They never did. And then of course the big kind of question was, well, if Harris wins, will we see the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act go ahead and expire at the end of 25 like it's supposed to, or would we see a new tax program?

Well, now that we know Trump is coming back in, I think it's probably a safe assumption to say that he's going to try to either extend the TCJA or maybe even make it permanent. Right. So there's conversation around that. So I thought we could talk a little bit about what that might mean for retirees, pre-retirees, and just from a planning and thought kind of process should that happen.

Tony Mauro:

Yeah. And I think now that hopefully everybody's emotions are calming down a little bit, depending on,-

Speaker 1:

We hope.

Tony Mauro:

Won or lost.

Speaker 1:

We hope. Right.

Tony Mauro:

Half of everybody is mad and half of everybody is happy. And I think the big thing with all of this is, and I've been putting it out in our newsletter since the election is even though it may not have gone your way, life is not going to change all that much for you. I mean, you need to be aware of some of these things and how it impacts you and how to use it to your best benefit. Because the end of the day, we go back to doing what we do and trying to make the best of what we've got and so,-

Speaker 1:

Right. And we know that fiscally our country's in really bad shape and whatever changes they're going to be working on is not going to happen overnight. It is going to take a little time. They're going to break some eggs along the way. It's not going to be a totally smooth process. I mean, we're in pretty bad shape, Tony fiscally. Right. So it's going to take a lot of work to kind of right the ship. And obviously the voters voted for hoping that prices come down, getting a better grip on the economy. That was one of the biggest poll movers, I suppose, in that conversation. So with that in mind, let's talk a little bit about that TCJA standpoint. If again, this is if, but since they're going to have the House and the Senate, it appears there's a likelihood that they're going to get this passed through at least if nothing else, an extension. Let's just start there. That's good from the fact that tax rates are historically low, right, for the common everyday working American tax rates are historically low. So that's a good place to start.

Tony Mauro:

It's a good place to start. Yeah. And from a taxpayer standpoint, who doesn't like low taxes?

Speaker 1:

Right.

Tony Mauro:

And me included. And so that's beneficial. Now the big picture, like you say, our financial situation as a country, we already know, everybody knows that Congress tends to spend way more than they take in. And that,-

Speaker 1:

Sure.

Tony Mauro:

I just read an article the other day about the TCJA, that if they extend it, it could, it could add another 2.6 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.

Speaker 1:

Correct.

Tony Mauro:

Which from a fiscal standpoint, it's like, ooh boy, we're already in bad shape. This is going to make it worse but,-

Speaker 1:

Well, okay, so let's kind of talk about that. Let's break that down a little bit for a second. So if you think about it, the reason they put it in the way they did, right, for the number of years, what was it, seven years I think when they put it in?

Tony Mauro:

Yeah, seven years.

Speaker 1:

Was because they said they were worried about it ballooning the deficit. Well, obviously the deficit's gotten out of control anyway, so,-

Tony Mauro:

It is.

Speaker 1:

Keeping the TCJA is I think it's, we talk often, Tony about having a three-legged stool for retirement. Right. And I think that's what the leaders are going to have to do from a government standpoint. One is going to be promoting job growth and keeping tax rates low for paying Americans. So again, maybe extending the TCJA, but to your point, it could add to the deficit. So spending has to get under control. I think that's the second piece. Like the conversation, don't like the conversation, but the idea of this department of government efficiency that's being tossed around out there and cutting some of this incredibly wasteful spending that we do, and let's be honest, we waste a lot of money, could make a huge impact and maybe offset some of that cost of the TCJA plus the tariff conversation. Right.

Tony Mauro:

Yeah. I think all that is part of what I feel like are,-

Speaker 1:

The big picture, right?

Tony Mauro:

Policy decisions, yeah, that has to be made by this and future administrations and try to work towards figuring this out to.

Speaker 1:

Right. Because it's $36 trillion. You can't fix it with just one thing. Right.

Tony Mauro:

No, you cannot.

Speaker 1:

So that in mind, that in mind about the ballooning, just from that standpoint, we get that as far as a bigger picture that they have to work on. But what does it mean for everyday Americans? Well, I think one of the places, Tony, besides just having low tax rates, which is good, and the narrower brackets versus going back to the wider is the conversation about, well now it gives you more time to Roth over time. Right. Because if people were talking about doing Roth conversions at these historic low tax rates, well you only had until the end of 2025 to get them done. So your window was narrowing. If again, if they extend the TCJA, that could make planning a lot easier for you for your clients if they do need to do Roth conversions over time.

Tony Mauro:

Absolutely. And we're looking at it from that standpoint now that it's over, that we're going to be harping on our clients, assuming they extend this, is to take advantage of this because we don't know when they're going to either reverse it. And I always liked that word, you mentioned it earlier, permanent. Of course, Congress changes stuff.

Speaker 1:

Right. Nothing's ever permanent. Yeah.

Tony Mauro:

Never really permanent, but it's harder to change when it's permanent rather than just let it expire. So it's important to take, like I say, it doesn't matter who's in office, we have to take advantage of what they are allowing us to do or giving us or legally.

Speaker 1:

Sure.

Tony Mauro:

And making sure that from a financial planning standpoint, it helps all of us if on these Roth conversions and whatnot, because I'm a big fan of them, is to set yourself up for a good retirement, for that end game. So I think that's extremely important.

Speaker 1:

Yeah. And it does give you guys a lot more of a window to plan, again, it's the devil that you know. Right. So if we know the tax rates, let's just, we're working off an assumption, but think about when you sit down with a financial professional, they're putting information into the software. They're still working off of assumptions, right, assuming that you don't lose your job or assuming this, this or this and that you can run scenarios for social security at this amount, plus you could run social security projections at the lower amount should they not fix that. Right.

So a lot of what you guys do is assumptions, right? You can put some good educated guesses and you can put stuff in the software and get a good picture, but life changes, things happen. So let's just again, run the assumption that the TCJA gets at least extended through four more years. Let's just say if nothing else through Trump's presidency. Well then that gives you four years of planning strategy around some things to try to get done while we are again in these historic low tax rates. And that can be very valuable.

Tony Mauro:

I think so. Yeah. And going to the other side of it a little bit,-

Speaker 1:

Sure.

Tony Mauro:

Let's say they let them sunset.

Speaker 1:

Okay.

Tony Mauro:

Now, America's tax bill increases by 2.6 trillion over the next decade, which will help cut into the deficit, but it's going to impact consumption and growth and everything else because if everybody's paying more taxes, then they're going to stop spending, which poses problems from,-

Speaker 1:

The economy standpoint. Right.

Tony Mauro:

From the economy standpoint.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Tony Mauro:

And so it really is a tough job to try to balance all this.

Speaker 1:

Oh, for sure.

Tony Mauro:

And try to make it work.

Speaker 1:

And we're not even talking about the conversation that they're having as far as maybe lowering corporate tax rates even a bit more. So under Trump's first presidency, he brought it down to where it's currently at, at the 21, I think it's 21%,-

Tony Mauro:

21. Yeah.

Speaker 1:

For corporate tax. That brought a lot of business back to the country. Right. A lot of companies, I mean, think about the Apple conversation. Apple brought $250 billion back in when that happened. By lowering that to 15, yes, there's the worry of ballooning the deficit, but again, the idea is to spurn on job growth and economic growth. Then again, coupling that with tariffs on certain things, which again, the tariffs he put in place, the Biden administration, they left them in place. So obviously they were working in that regard. So again, I think it's one of these pieces where it's going to take a while for us to see the end results of this, but I think we can, it feels optimistic that we could make a dent, right, in this massive debt by doing some of these things and also pull the country a bit forward.

Now, who knows, there's a long way to go, right, Tony, and of course the big key, the first thing is going to be the energy dependency. And that's of course, that's one of Trump's big things, is on day one he's going to get the drill baby drill going again. Right. And so people think about that. If we start getting more energy independent right from day one that he takes office, we're not going to feel that in the streets for a little while. Right. Transportation costs and stuff like that, they'll come down, which will bring groceries down eventually, but it will take a few months.

Tony Mauro:

It's going to take a little while. Yeah. I mean, nothing they're going to do, like you said before, is going to have an immediate impact. I think for most of us, you want to see, like you said, country moving potentially in the right direction. Of course, everybody's got their own opinion on what that direction is, but,-

Speaker 1:

At least fiscally anyway, right?

Tony Mauro:

Yeah. Yeah. Fiscally, I think we all can agree that nobody likes to see this kind of deficit and whatnot and constant different administrations continuing to,-

Speaker 1:

Yeah, add to it.

Tony Mauro:

Yeah, add to it, not do much about it. Then we've got all these problems on the side that nobody really seems to tackle until it's really at the last minute.

Speaker 1:

Because we're really mortgaging, not necessarily you and I, Tony, our future, but we're certainly mortgaging our grandkids future,-

Tony Mauro:

Absolutely.

Speaker 1:

At $36 trillion and climbing. Somebody's paying this bill somewhere at some point. And we think back to the deficits we've had before, and we kind of took care of that into the Clinton administration. And I was talking with, we talked about this before, I was talking with former US comptroller, David Walker, who was part of that, and he's like, "Bill Clinton was the last fiscally responsible president we had." That says something. Not from a party standpoint, but from the fact that we've had multiple administrations since Bill Clinton and none of them have been fiscally responsible. So we've got to get back there. And yes, Trump was already president and they weren't necessarily fiscally responsible. So hopefully he's learned as well. And we try to get in that regard because think about again, what you guys do. If you are trying to help somebody plan for retirement and they come in and you've got the X's and O's, the exact number, what's happening with their income and they're not being fiscally responsible, their retirement strategy is not going to work.

Tony Mauro:

Not going to work. We're the ones that have to break that to them and try to figure out some options to help them try to make something work.

Speaker 1:

And they have to make changes. Right. Your options are spend less, right?

Tony Mauro:

Yep. Yeah.

Speaker 1:

Save more. So there's only certain things you can do, and that's where we're at as a country as well.

Tony Mauro:

I think it is. And I think you go to the countryside and say, well, okay, you can tell the politicians to spend less if you can get them to do that. But then I think they tend to divert things to other things that they want to do rather than spending less. But I think where they really fall down is, and sometimes it's the tough decision when we're talking to our clients where you have to save more is sometimes they may have to say, look, guys and gals or country, we've got to raise taxes or we got to come up with some ways to make some money somehow, and this is what we've come up with. And nobody likes to hear that.

Speaker 1:

Oh, for sure. I mean, I got a feeling that they're going to take a look at this and while we might extend the TCJA, they do want to make some changes. The SALT tax, there's some changes there. They're talking about putting itemization back in, which could be very helpful for citizens into their tax planning. But we could be looking at a slight brazen Medicare tax. Right. So that may be necessary as well in order to help fund that whole situation. So you're not going to make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.

Tony Mauro:

That's right. That's right. And we've got all kinds of issues. I think, like you say, social security is one of them. Coming down the pike that's going to get more and more attention as we get closer to those deadlines and yeah, they're got to make some tough decisions. And sometimes they're going to be a little bit unpopular, but I think they probably could do a better job of at least when they do come up with some things, conveying it to the American people a little better.

Speaker 1:

Well, the TCJA is going to be a big focal point. We'll see how that goes. Probably within the first 100 days we might see something there. We may not. Right. Because it doesn't expire until the end of 25, but obviously that's starting next year. So I got a feeling it's going to be early on the docket, so it could be something that happens in the first 100 days. And again, we're just speculating, spitballing a little bit here this week on the podcast. So we'll certainly keep an eye on it Tony. As the administration starts and executive orders start to fly, we'll start to kind of see how these things affect not just the market, but other pieces. And when you think about the market standpoint, it obviously reacted very favorably to the election. It slowed a little bit, but I think it seems to be fairly positive for now.

Tony Mauro:

I think so for now is right. I think yeah, that election euphoria has kind of subsided a bit, but nevertheless, we're still chugging along. The economy even with higher prices and whatnot is doing pretty well. I think it'll help if rates come down and,-

Speaker 1:

Yeah, our unemployment numbers have been climbing obviously, and there was some fudgery there, so I think we've got a little bit more unemployment than we hoped for, but we'll see as the year winds down. I know there's some companies out there laying off and hopefully they'll be able to, and again, I think that's the idea behind some of the job growth. Right. Keeping the tax rates low will help spurn on the job market. So it's a fine line. It really is incredibly complex when you start to think about it. And it's the same thing with what you guys do, helping people plan for retirement.

Tony Mauro:

Yeah. And I've only been to Washington DC a couple of times both on business and got a chance to get in front of our Iowa Congress people, and it's fascinating to see how, we all complain about them, but how our government, how massive it is and how it does seem to work with all of its problems, we plot along and it's just an incredible beast.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Tony Mauro:

You have to try to get things done and make decisions.

Speaker 1:

It really is. Yeah. And some would say maybe a little too big, so,-

Tony Mauro:

Yeah. Yeah. Maybe.

Speaker 1:

Too big a government is not a good thing. So hopefully we'll see some of the reduction in there. And that could help. And again, this is going to be like a three-legged kind of milking stool, same kind of idea. They're going to have to do multiple moving parts to get us in a better space, but we'll keep an eye on things. We'll talk about things here on the podcast and try to shed some light on them. But at the end of the day, you really, as Tony said, to start this whole thing off, you have to kind of build and structure a plan, Tony, that's going to weather whatever administration and whatever happens to come down the pike because we don't have a lot of control.

Yes, we used our voice to vote. Obviously that was very resounding this year for Republicans. They won all three. It appears as well as the majority vote, the popular vote. So we'll see, right? I mean, but we can do that job there. But at the end of the day, you still want to strategize and have a plan that kind of deals with the ups and downs of life because life will keep trucking along.

Tony Mauro:

You do. I would say after the first year, my advice would be to get with your advisor or find one and have them explain some of this to you and how it could affect you individually, whether it's on taxes or how it's going to affect your financial life.

Speaker 1:

Absolutely. Yep. So if you need some help, reach out to Tony and his team at Tax Doctor, Inc. Again, he's been helping families for 30 plus years. He's a CPA, a certified financial planner and an EA. So great resource for you to tap into. Just give them a jingle or reach out to them online. We'll have all the links in the show notes here for you to check out. But you can go to yourplanningpros.com to get started. That's yourplanningpros.com to get started. And again, we'll have that information in the show descriptions of the podcast. And don't forget to subscribe to us if you would be so kind on Apple or Spotify or whatever platform you like using. If you enjoy the content and find it useful, you can also share that with others who might benefit from the messages as well. And we'll see you next time here on Plan With The Tax Man. Happy Thanksgiving once again to everybody out there and Tony, you as well, my friend.

Tony Mauro:

All right, we'll see you next time.

Speaker 1:

We'll see you in December here on Plan With The Tax Man.

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