Kerre Woodham: Reverse the ban, but is anyone interested in coming here?

Kerre Woodham Mornings Podcast

Yesterday the Prime Minister announced what we all know to be true, that we have an energy security crisis.

We seem to have been having them for a while now, every winter there are concerns about brownouts. The Electricity Authority put it into plain English on their website - winter sees the highest demand for electricity, obviously, also when it's unseasonably cold in autumn or spring, that can cause high demand periods. The winter peak capacity reflects the ability of the electricity system to meet high winter demand. So typically, solar doesn't produce electricity during peak demand periods in winter because it's dark. Wind generation, which is 10% of New Zealand's electricity generation capacity and growing, isn't reliable because, who knew, but cool temperatures bring low wind speeds. So solar is out, wind generation is out during winter.

That leaves hydro, geothermal, and thermal generation to provide the bulk of electricity during high demand periods. Geothermal already runs at near full capacity, so only thermal and hydro can ramp up and down to meet the winter peaks. But when you have a perfect storm, as the Prime Minister called it yesterday, winter peak capacity and a dry year, when low rainfall sees the hydro lake levels fall below average for an extended period of time, hydropower can't ramp up. There's no water there, they can’t push the turbines.

So then we have to burn coal. Coal use soared in 2021 to the highest in about 30 odd years. Then coal use plummeted in 2022, reflecting the vagaries of the weather and the fact that some more renewables were coming online. But while solar and wind can store some excess energy using batteries, that's limited to only a few hours' worth of electricity, and isn't enough to manage a situation where rainfall is below average for weeks to months. So there are all sorts of solutions being explored to try and make up for those dry years during winter.

I mean it makes perfect sense, doesn't it? We've known about this for a very, very long time. We are dependent on rainfall during winter, we use more electricity during winter. If there is a dry year, we have to get the energy from somewhere, and right now our choices are coal, coal, and coal. So we are exploring the renewables, but why are we still exploring them when we've known for a very, very long time that people are concerned about climate change, that the world is moving to renewables. Why are we still exploring them?

Chris Luxon says while we're exploring the renewables, we need to reverse the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration and take urgent steps to bring liquefied natural gas into the country to offset the energy shortages because our exporters need certainty, they need to know that the factories will keep running so they can sell our products, so we can make some money. Forgive me if this is all very 101 but this is what we need to know: we need to know that when we turn on the switch at the factory, the power will come on. And if we're concerned about burning coal, we need to have something to replace it. And we don't have anything secure yet, so the Prime Minister has said let's bring in liquefied natural gas, which other countries use to sort of level out electricity supply. So he's also looking at the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration being reversed. That's been in place since Labour came to power in 2018 outside of onshore Taranaki.

The opposition parties, in a shocking revelation, are dead against the importation of liquefied natural gas, seeing it as just another fossil fuel. But we need certainty and security so what's their solution? There are a number of questions though. We may be open for exploration but would oil and gas companies want to come here? Especially if Labour goes ‘no, dead against it, we're not having a bar of it, fossil fuels are dead and gone’. So why would you come here, given the electoral cycle? Also, in 2012, Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company that came here to do a little bit of a looksie to see if they could make money out of exploiting oil and gas here, they pulled out. They got the license and the permit in 2010, they pulled out in 2012 because they said there weren't enough indicators for them to continue. All very well to reverse the ban, but would people come here?

And on the renewables, when you have the four big generation and retail power companies recording their largest single year rise in earnings this year, what's that all about? If we are the majority shareholders, which we are, and we are in the middle of an energy security crisis, then why can't we push them into spending more of their money, more of their profits, into the renewables? Fast track it, get them cracking.

This was along the lines of what Mike Hosking asked Christopher Luxon, the Prime Minister, when he was on this morning.

“You know we’ll keep an eye on the level of profitability, but they also need confidence to invest because we want them, and I know they will, to spend huge amounts of capital on actually, you know, doubling that renewable electricity in geothermal, and wind, and solar, and all the stuff that needs to happen. So as I said, it is about making sure that we're giving people confidence, and that's what the announcement was about yesterday, was to say to many of those international investors who want to do the offshore engineering solution for LNG implementation, who want to do exploration for gas, who actually want to know that can go. A huge number of the projects that Chris Bishop’s looking at on the Fast Track Approvals are people want to do renewable projects, but actually, the consenting times insane. It's absolutely insane. So let's just change the rules, make it a year, extend the consents, all that good stuff.”

As a majority shareholder, and I know normally you wouldn't interfere in the running of a company, no, put those billions collectively of dollars of profits into renewables right now, and we'll make it easier as the government to fast track those projects you want in place. Chris Hipkins says there is already consented renewable electricity that could be built right now but these big gentailers are choosing not to build them because it's in their commercial interest to keep energy scarce and maximize profits, which would be economic sabotage if that is true. And you'd have to take that, anything I suppose, a politician says with a grain of salt, but if they are already consented, why aren't they being now?

I have more questions than I have answers for you, so I am looking to you for the answers, those of you who know more than I! We know we have an energy security crisis. Chris Hipkins says that there are consents in place. We could get cracking if the gentailers want to. They have made squillions, so it's not like they're wondering where their next buck is coming from. They've made millions from us, we're the ones paying the price every single time for decisions made by these big companies and by governments. So get cracking with the renewables, government, do your work by fast tracking these already consented projects. They need to start. The gentailers need to start on those. Any that are still waiting for consents, we fast track them. Oil and gas exploration? Sure. reverse the ban, but is anybody interested in coming here?

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