How Economic Shifts in the US & Canada Are Impacting Home Prices

The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast

The economic landscape in both the US and Canada is showing significant shifts that have important implications for homeowners, the housing market, and the broader economy. Recently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) made a notable move by cutting interest rates by 0.25%, hinting at further cuts to come. This action aligns with market expectations, with a cumulative 0.5% cut so far and forward guidance pointing to an additional 0.50% reduction, potentially ending 2024 at a 4% rate. This decrease from 5% to 4% has offered some relief to variable mortgage rate holders. For instance, a $500,000 mortgage would see monthly payments drop from $2,684 to $2,387, a substantial annual saving of $3,600 or about 12%.

In the United States, inflation has eased from 3.3% to 3%, primarily due to lower consumer spending, raising the likelihood of a rate cut in September by 85.7%. The Federal Reserve has maintained a 5.5% rate for 12 months, a full 100 basis points higher than Canada’s current rate. As both countries trend towards lower inflation, the sentiment grows that inflation is under control, with a path to 2% inflation expected within a year, accompanied by gradual rate cuts potentially ending at 3% by late 2025.

However, the housing market’s health is nuanced. While mortgage originations are increasing, signaling a potential recovery, several key metrics still require careful consideration. In Canada, rental market dynamics are shifting significantly. The recent CPI print showed an 8.5% year-over-year increase in rent, though the month-over-month increase was the lowest in two years, influenced by a record number of rental completions. There are currently 140,000 rental units in the construction pipeline, expected to add 6% more rental stock nationally and 15% in British Columbia over the next two years. This surge in supply might alleviate high rental rates, but challenges persist as private investors shy away from rental investments due to new policies. For instance, Bosa recently halted two purpose-built rental towers due to financial unfeasibility driven by new amenity cost charges and revised development cost charges.

Housing starts have been declining steadily for three years, with new starts down 9% nationally in June to 241,000, below expectations of 255,000. Building permit applications also dropped 12% in May, indicating potential future supply constraints. In British Columbia, permits fell 53% month-over-month, partly due to a rush to secure favorable CMHC financing before regulatory changes.

Despite these challenges, there are signs of stabilization. Mortgage originations rose 0.3% month-over-month in May, with annual growth at 3.5%, suggesting a potential bottoming out in late 2023. Predicted future rate cuts could further support this recovery over the next 18 months. Fixed-rate mortgages, particularly 3 and 4-year terms, dominate new loans, accounting for 55% of all new mortgages.

As we approach the end of the month, preliminary sales data shows a balanced market for the second consecutive month, with slight declines in median and average home prices. Inventory levels and sales figures are stabilizing, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the housing market. However, the overall economic environment remains complex, requiring ongoing monitoring of key metrics and trends.

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