Ep. 228: Dave Snowden - On How to Make Sense of an Uncertain World

The Decision-Making Studio Podcast

Today, my guest is Dave Snowden, a leading expert in complexity theory and knowledge management. Dave is the creator of the Cynefin Framework, which is a tool for understanding challenges and helping us make decisions within the right context. His work is international in nature. It covers government and industry, looking at complex issues relating to strategy and organizational decision-making. He is a popular and passionate keynote speaker on a range of topics, and he's well-known for his pragmatic cynicism - and you will hear that come through as you listen to this episode.

I wish I had come across Dave's work earlier in my career because I think I'd have made some different career choices. In particular, his 2007 Harvard Business Review article with Mary Boone is excellent. It was on the cover of the November edition of the HBR and won the Academy of Management Award for Best Paper of that year.

In this episode, we dive into the nuances of decision-making in complex environments. He walks us through the Cynefin Framework and how it helps us understand the challenges at hand. Dave shares insights into how organizations can avoid the pitfalls of traditional decision-making approaches that often oversimplify complex issues. We also explore the role of narrative in making sense of complexity and how his work with something called SenseMaker, supports capturing and interpreting diverse perspectives. If you're interested in how to navigate complexity and make better decisions in uncertain times, this episode is a must-listen.

Show notes:

Dave Snowden

The Cynefin Framework

Dave and Mary Boone’s 2007 HBR Article, “A Leader’s Framework for Decision-Making”

SenseMaker

Estuarine Mapping

EU Field Guide to Managing Complexity (and Chaos) in Times of Crisis

Wardley Maps - A strategic mapping technique that helps organizations understand and adapt to their competitive landscape.

Gary Klein’s Pre-mortem

Max Boisot’s I-Space

London taxi drivers’ “The Knowledge”

Taylorism

Agile

Hawthorne effect

Cynefin’s ‘risk matrix’

Abductive thinking

Dave on algorithmic induction

Dave on AI: “anthropomorphising idiot savants”

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