Episode 10 - Panel 3a - Revisiting Protestant decline in Ireland, 1911 - 1926 - Donald Wood

Southern Irish Loyalism in Context

I discuss the differing reasons put forward by academics for the sharp decline between 1911 and 1926 of the Protestant population of the twenty six counties that formed the Irish Free State. Census reports from the 1871-1911 period are used to question theories of long term Protestant natural decline. I argue that, up to 1911, Protestant natural change was either neutral or positive and all Protestant decline was due to emigration. I analyse the detailed information from the 1911 censuses that is now available to cast some new light on the nature of 1911-26 decline and questions some of the conclusions of more recent papers on the subject notably the Methodist membership study of Professor Fitzpatrick, where he argues that infertility was really the main agent of decline. Using data from 1911 census in conjunction with 1926 census reports, cohort depletion analysis is used to demonstrate that most 1911-26 Methodist decline occurred in the younger age groups – a characteristic associated with high emigration rather than low fertility.I contend that there is little or no evidence in the 1911 census of the sort of demographic collapse of child numbers that might have resulted in a chronic decline in Methodist membership numbers during the succeeding 15 years. I conclude that exceptionally high Protestant emigration did occur during this period, most of it in the period 1920-26, indicating that revolutionary violence and regime change might well have influenced the outflow. Declining Catholic emigration during this period suggests high exceptionally high Protestant emigration was not primarily economic driven. The mathematics behind Andrew Bielenberg’s 2013 estimate of between 2000 and 16000 involuntary Protestant emigrants is questioned. Had his methodology been correctly applied, his numbers would have been significantly higher. Donald Wood is an amateur historian who has taken a deep interest in Irish history, particularly the turbulent years surrounding Irish independence. I grew up in a Protestant farming community in West Cork in the decade following World War II. My family emigrated to England in the late 1950s (for economic reasons) and I pursued a career in the IT industry, mostly in the UK. Following my retirement, I have been applying my analytical skills to some of the contested issues surrounding the war of independence in general and, in particular, Protestant population change.