35. Why is the Pandemic So Hard to Predict? w/ Sam Scarpino

Follow the Science

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3y ago 24:21

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We take precautions, get vaccinated, and yet cases surge again and again. And then the waves decline unexpectedly, defying predictions. There’s no good explanation for why cases are going up in some places and not others. And there’s not nearly enough information on which venues or activities are the most dangerous. By contrast, weather forecasters look downright clairvoyant.

Today’s guest, Sam Scarpino, is an expert on complex systems. He’s just started a new position as managing director of the pandemic surveillance program with the Rockefeller Institute. We talk about what’s predictable, what isn’t, and what he and his colleagues hope to learn to help give people more concrete forecasts and more information about our risks.

“Follow the Science" is produced, written, and hosted by Faye Flam , with funding by the Society for Professional Journalists. Today’s episode was edited by Seth Gliksman with music by Kyle Imperatore. If you’d like to hear more "Follow the Science," please like, follow, and subscribe!

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