Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 3

Establish The Run - NFL Premium

Editor’s Note: This season, John Daigle will be writing Matchups for one afternoon game, SNF, and MNF. For these games, Evan Silva is also providing his notes to incorporate into the column.

NE @ NYJ | NYG @ CLE | GB @ TEN | CHI @ IND | HOU @ MIN | PHI @ NO | LAC @ PIT | DEN @ TB | CAR @ LV | MIA @ SEA | BAL @ DAL | SF @ LAR | DET @ ARI | KC @ ATL | JAX @ BUF | WAS @ CIN

Thursday Night Football

New England @ N.Y. Jets

Team Totals: Jets 21.5, Patriots 16

Fantasy’s QB30 and QB26 finisher in Weeks 1-2, Jacoby Brissett offers next-to-no box-score appeal facing the Jets’ loaded pass defense on a short week. Gang Green stymied Brock Purdy (QB25) and Will Levis (QB17) in its first two games. The 37.5-point total on Pats-Jets is Week 3’s third lowest. With Patriots starting LT Vederian Lowe (knee), LG Sidy Sow (ankle), and C David Andrews (hip) nursing injuries, this is a green-light spot for New York’s D/ST. New England was already surrendering a whopping 45% pressure rate. … The centerpiece of New England’s offense, Rhamondre Stevenson banked Weeks 1-2 touch counts of 28 and 23 on snap rates of 78% and 72% against the Bengals and Seahawks. No. 2 RB Antonio Gibson did tease his explosiveness on a 45-yard fourth-quarter run in last Sunday’s defeat but remains a lightly-used change-of-pace back. Gang Green was clipped for a combined 51/229/1 (4.5 YPC) rushing line by 49ers and Titans RBs in its first two games, while Jets first-team DE Jermaine Johnson (Achilles) was lost for the season last week, and All-Pro-caliber ILB C.J. Mosley (toe) seems doubtful to play on TNF.

Brissett’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Hunter Henry 15; Stevenson and K.J. Osborn 8; Austin Hooper 5; Ja’Lynn Polk 4; Tyquan Thornton and DeMario Douglas 3; Gibson 1. … Featuring Henry was a critical part of OC Alex Van Pelt’s Week 2 game plan; the Patriots forced Henry the ball early and often en route to an 8/109/0 receiving line versus Seattle. Henry drew 12 targets, whereas no other Patriot saw more than five. Mosley’s absence would upgrade Henry’s matchup. … Osborn, Polk, Douglas, and Thornton formed a four-way WRBC in Week 2’s loss. Only Osborn (2) and Polk (3) were targeted. No Patriots WR is Week 3 playable against the Jets’ shutdown secondary. … No. 2 TE Austin Hooper is playing over half of New England’s offensive snaps, giving him some one-game DFS appeal.

40-year-old Aaron Rodgers enters Week 3 having thrown for fewer than 300 yards in 24 straight games and averaged 5.0 rushing yards in that span. An immobile, late-career game manager at this point, Rodgers’ box-score ceiling barely exists. … Dating back to 2023, Breece Hall’s last five touch counts are 21, 21, 39, 21, and 32, good for a per-game average of 142.8 total yards and 1.2 TDs. The Patriots will be without run-stuffing MLB Ja’Whaun Bentley (shoulder, I.R.) against the Jets. … Braelon Allen asserted himself as one of fantasy’s top handcuffs by parlaying nine touches into 56 yards and two TDs on a 35% snap rate in Week 2’s win at Tennessee. Allen could be a season-long league-winner if Hall goes down.

Rodgers’ Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Garrett Wilson 15; Hall 14; Allen Lazard 9; Allen 4; Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert 3; Mike Williams and Malachi Corley 1. … Wilson’s statistical results through two Rodgers starts are 6/60/0 and 4/57/0. Wilson figures to draw Week 3 shadow coverage from Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez, who chased Ja’Marr Chase (6/62/0 on six targets) in Week 1 and DK Metcalf (10/129/1 on 14 targets) in Week 2. Much of Chase and Metcalf’s production wasn’t gained in Gonzalez’s direct coverage, however. I’m stubbornly approaching Wilson as a confident WR2/3 play here. … The Jets promoted Mike Williams into three-wide packages in Week 2’s win against Tennessee. Yet Allen Lazard continued to operate as New York’s clear-cut No. 2 receiver with Xavier Gipson demoted to No. 4. Lazard and Williams deserve attention on single-game DFS slates but aren’t startable in season-long fantasy. … Among Jets pass catchers, only Wilson ran more Week 2 pass routes than Conklin, who is one-game DFS-slate playable.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Patriots 13

N.Y. Giants @ Cleveland

Team Totals: Browns 22, Giants 16.5

Daniel Jones runs into a Week 3 buzzsaw at Cleveland, which stymied Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence to the tune of 33-of-62 (53%) passing for 399 yards (6.4 YPA), a 1:0 TD-to-INT ratio, seven combined sacks, and two fumbles in Weeks 1-2. The Browns’ D/ST has a green light. … Devin Singletary has controlled 31 of 38 (82%) Giants running back touches while appearing on 74% of New York’s offensive snaps. Nothing stands out favorably for his Week 3 matchup at Cleveland, but Singletary should be a virtual lock for 14+ touches.

Jones’ Weeks 1-2 targets: Malik Nabers 25; Wan’Dale Robinson 16; Darius Slayton 8; Singletary 6; Theo Johnson 4; Tyrone Tracy Jr. 3. … A predictable volume vacuum, Nabers owns an obscene 39% target share in two games. Jones threw at Nabers on 69% of his Week 2 routes run, the highest rate among pass catchers in Next Gen Stats’ nine-year history. I’m tempering expectations for Nabers against Cleveland’s loaded backend but continuing to value him as a WR2. … Displacing Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton operated as the Giants’ wind-sprint-running “X” in Week 2’s loss to Washington. … Slot man Robinson drew 12 targets in Week 1, then only four in Week 2. Fellow slot WR Christian Kirk eked out one catch for -1 yard in last Sunday’s bout with the Browns. … Theo Johnson continued to operate as the Giants’ primary tight end in Week 2’s defeat but didn’t draw a single target.

Deshaun Watson deserves credit for slipping out of seemingly countless would-be Week 2 sacks against the Jaguars, yet Watson finished below 220 passing yards for the fifth straight game and hasn’t shown signs of box-score relevance in years. … The Browns’ backfield morphed into a two-way RBBC in Week 2’s victory; Jerome Ford led the outfit in snaps (32) over D’Onta Foreman (27), even as Foreman out-touched Ford 15 to 8. Ford did reach a top speed of 21.3 MPH on his second-quarter 36-yard run, rendering him the fastest ball carrier of Week 2. The Giants were lit up for 48/279/1 (5.8 YPC) rushing by enemy running backs in Weeks 1-2, setting up plus matchups for both Ford and Foreman as lower-end flex options.

Watson’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Amari Cooper 17; Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore 14; Ford 9; Jordan Akins and Pierre Strong Jr. 5; Cedric Tillman 3. … Nowhere near the same page, Cooper has turned 17 targets from Watson into a pathetic 27 scoreless yards. Cooper figures to draw Week 3 shadow coverage from Giants top CB Deonte Banks. … Jeudy netted Weeks 1-2 receiving lines of 3/25/1 (Dallas) and 5/73/0 (Jacksonville). He’s a WR4/5 type. … Moore’s Weeks 1-2 receiving results were 3/9/0 and 6/44/0. … In David Njoku’s (high ankle) Week 2 absence, Jordan Akins logged a disappointing 49% snap rate and drew one target. Blocking type “Blake Whiteheart” played 33% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps.

Score Prediction: Browns 20, Giants 13

Green Bay @ Tennessee

Team Totals: Titans 19.5, Packers 17

Sans Jordan Love (knee) in Week 2, the Packers devised an extreme run-heavy game plan against the Colts, all told amassing 53 rushing attempts versus 14 Malik Willis dropbacks. The biggest usage beneficiary was Josh Jacobs, who over his last six quarters has turned 42 carries into 231 yards (5.5 YPC) yet had a 20-yard touchdown run negated in Week 2 by a holding call on LT Rasheed Walker and was later stripped in the end zone versus Indy. Backup RB MarShawn Lloyd’s (ankle) setback further solidifies Jacobs’ voluminous role. … Love is tentatively due back in Week 4 or 5. This is technically a #RevengeGame for Willis against the Titans, who traded him to Green Bay for a seventh-round pick at the end of camp. Essentially discouraged from passing by Green Bay’s coaching staff, Willis finished as Week 2’s fantasy QB21. Willis is a two-quarterback-league option and nothing more.

All Packers pass catchers are Week 3 fades as rotational pieces in an extreme run-first offense. At wide receiver, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton all played meaningful Week 2 snaps, yet none topped four targets. Tucker Kraft has taken over as Green Bay’s every-down tight end but drew a measly two Week 2 targets compared to Luke Musgrave’s one in last Sunday’s win over Indianapolis.

Will Levis has settled in as a quarterback we want to stream D/STs against. Over his last three full games, Levis has averaged two turnovers committed and 4.7 sacks taken while “leading” Tennessee’s offense to a paltry 16.7 points per game. Levis drew the ire of HC Brian Callahan following a flailing Week 2 lateral attempt that resulted in a red-zone fumble against the Jets. Mason Rudolph would be the next man up. … Even after Titans coaches publicly promised a more balanced post-Week 1 backfield split, Tony Pollard kept Week 2 control by out-snapping Tyjae Spears 44 to 22, out-touching him 22 to 8, and out-gaining Spears 102 to 31 against the Jets. An ankle injury cost Spears most of the second half of last Sunday’s game. Pollard is an upside RB2 bet against a Packers defense Eagles and Colts running backs touched up for 39/214/2 (5.5 YPC) rushing in Weeks 1-2.

Levis’ Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Calvin Ridley 13; Pollard and Tyler Boyd 10; Spears 6; Chig Okonkwo 5; DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks 3; Josh Whyle and Nick Vannett 2. … Ridley hit Week 2 paydirt twice, once on a 10-yard end-around and again on an end-zone dive in double coverage from 40 yards out. Fellow WRs A.J. Brown (5/119/1), DeVonta Smith (7/84/0), and Alec Pierce (5/56/1) posted up Green Bay’s secondary in Weeks 1-2. … Boyd has 44 scoreless yards on 10 2024 targets from Levis and has topped 60 yards once over his last 28 regular-season games. … Still debilitated by an MCL sprain, Hopkins has 17 scoreless yards on three targets in two games. I’ll continue to bet against Hopkins until he proves me wrong. … Okonkwo, Whyle, and Vannett form a value-crippling three-way TEBC.

Score Prediction: Titans 20, Packers 17

Chicago @ Indianapolis

Team Totals: Colts 22, Bears 21

Week 3 offers Caleb Williams his best to-date breakout opportunity beneath Lucas Oil Stadium’s dome against a Colts defense C.J. Stroud and Malik Willis combined to carve for 36-of-46 passing (78%), 356 yards (7.7 YPA), a 3:0 TD-to-INT ratio, and 10/54/0 rushing in Weeks 1-2. Williams got the snot knocked out of him in Week 2’s loss to Houston but will dodge perennial Colts Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner (high ankle, I.R.) here. … Stacked up by Tennessee and Houston’s stout fronts in Weeks 1-2, D’Andre Swift now encounters a Colts defense that’s hemorrhaged 474 rushing yards, most by any team through two games since 1978. 6-foot-7, 291-pound space eater Buckner won’t play, while Indy’s linebackers move like they’re stuck in concrete. Two games in, Swift has logged 28 touches versus Khalil Herbert’s six and Travis Homer’s three. Swift is RB2/flex playable against Indianapolis.

Williams’ Weeks 1-2 target distribution: D.J. Moore 18; Keenan Allen 11; Rome Odunze 9; Swift, Cole Kmet, and DeAndre Carter 6; Gerald Everett 4; Herbert 2. … Moore’s receiving lines in Williams’ first two starts were 5/36/0 and 6/53/0. Moore’s Week 3 matchup is gold — the Colts lost top perimeter CB JuJu Brents (knee, I.R.) in Week 1 — while Moore is running 65% of his routes on the outside. Indianapolis’ secondary is exceedingly vulnerable outside the numbers. … Allen’s recurring heel injury renders him a Week 3 fade with suspect health and 29 scoreless yards to his 2024 name. … Odunze has secured three of nine targets from Williams for 44 scoreless yards on the year. Even against a beatable Colts backend, Odunze is tough to support as more than a low-floor WR4/flex. … Kmet ran only seven more Week 2 pass routes than Everett. Against the Texans, Kmet saw five targets to Everett’s three. The Bears’ tight end timeshare eliminates both Kmet and Everett’s fantasy viability.

The Bears’ D/ST is aggressively playable against Anthony Richardson, who through two 2024 starts is completing a paltry 49% of his passes with four picks and two fumbles. In Weeks 1-2, Chicago stymied Will Levis (QB26) and C.J. Stroud (QB16) while yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.7). Unlikely to experience passing success versus the Bears, Richardson’s fantasy results seem certain to be dictated by his Week 3 rushing production. … Jonathan Taylor was a Week 2 highlight reel at Green Bay — averaging an otherworldly 9.6 yards per touch — but didn’t play a single fourth-quarter snap because he isn’t involved in Indy’s passing-down packages. The Colts don’t trust Taylor as a receiver or pass blocker, preferring Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson there. Taylor does seem set for a bounce-back performance here in a game projected for neutral script.

Richardson’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Michael Pittman Jr. 15; Alec Pierce 10; Adonai Mitchell 9; Taylor 4; Ashton Dulin and Kylen Granson 3. … Held scoreless and under 50 yards in four straight games dating back to 2023, Pittman belongs on fantasy benches. Two weeks in, only one enemy WR has topped 50 yards versus Chicago’s shutdown secondary. … Richardson is an incredible 8-of-10 passing for 181 yards and two touchdowns when targeting Pierce. I’m betting against the sustainability of their connection, but Pierce’s vertical game suits Richardson’s skill set best among Colts WRs. … Mitchell committed two crippling first-half drops in Week 2’s loss to Green Bay, then lost playing time to special teamer Dulin. Mitchell could be cut out entirely with Josh Downs (ankle) on his way back.

Score Prediction: Bears 20, Colts 17

Houston @ Minnesota

Team Totals: Texans 24, Vikings 22

Fantasy’s QB11 two weeks in, C.J. Stroud visits Minneapolis’ domed U.S. Bank Stadium to face a talent-deficient but schemed-up Vikings defense coordinated by Brian Flores that Brock Purdy tagged for 8.9 yards per attempt last week. With the exception of running back, Houston’s offense is among the league’s healthiest entering Week 3, while Joe Mixon’s (ankle) expected absence could elevate OC Bobby Slowik’s reliance on pass plays. … With Mixon and Dameon Pierce (hamstring) expected to miss Sunday’s game, the Texans will turn to Cam Akers at Minnesota. Akers delivered an excellent preseason to make Houston’s final 53 but lost a fumble inside the Bears’ 5-yard line last week that nearly cost the Texans the game. Akers has only been a Texan for two months; Slowik’s trust in him is likely thin. I’m treating Akers as a risky RB2/flex option assuming he gets the start.

Stroud’s Weeks 1-2 targets: Nico Collins 18; Stefon Diggs 12; Tank Dell 11; Mixon 8; Dalton Schultz 6; Dare Ogunbowale and Brevin Jordan 3; Akers 1. … Collins is the X-receiver alpha we identified him as throughout draft season. He leads the NFL in receiving by a 52-yard margin, and there is nothing scary about Minnesota’s secondary personnel. … Diggs has caught 10 of 12 targets (83%) from Stroud but isn’t getting anything downfield. This is a #RevengeGame for Diggs against the team that drafted, then traded him. … Dell is fantasy’s premier buy-low target. He ran the exact same number of Week 2 routes (33) as Diggs. After sending No. 2 TE Brevin Jordan (knee) to I.R., Houston is definitively a three-receiver offense. Dell will deliver an eruption game sooner rather than later. … Schultz gets a slight bump from Jordan’s loss but remains a touchdown-dependent, borderline TE1/2.

Excelling despite thin weaponry — No. 2 WR Jordan Addison (ankle) has been a non-factor and T.J. Hockenson (knee) is on reserve/PUP — Sam Darnold enters Week 3 ranked No. 3 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (9.5), No. 5 in passer rating (111.8), and No. 3 in PFF’s QB grades. Yet neither Addison nor Hockenson will play against Houston, and Justin Jefferson (quad) is banged up. The Texans lead the AFC in sacks (9) and are beating expectations in the secondary. This is a concerning matchup for Darnold. … Houston is playing shutdown run defense for the second straight year under HC DeMeco Ryans, holding enemy backs to 33/75/2 (2.3 YPC) rushing in Weeks 1-2. Ty Chandler has showed signs of turning Minnesota’s backfield into a near-even timeshare with Aaron Jones, who missed a handful of Week 2 snaps due to a hip injury. Jones is an unsafe RB2/flex option here. Already averaging 62 total yards per game, Chandler needs to be rostered in all fantasy leagues.

Darnold’s Weeks 1-2 targets: Jefferson 13; Jones 8; Johnny Mundt 6; Jalen Nailor 5; Addison 4; Chandler 3; Josh Oliver and Trent Sherfield 2. … Jefferson blew past, then evaded double coverage on Week 2’s 97-yard TD against the 49ers; it was good for the longest touchdown from scrimmage in an NFL game since Week 5 of the 2022 season. Jefferson won’t play Week 3 at 100%, but the Vikings don’t seem genuinely worried about him. … Nailor will stand in as Minnesota’s No. 2 receiver in a brutal matchup against the Texans, who stymied D.J. Moore (6/53/0), Rome Odunze (2/33/0), and Michael Pittman Jr. (4/31/0) in Weeks 1-2 while getting elite play from No. 1 CB Derek Stingley and No. 2 CB Kwame Lassiter. … Journeyman types Sherfield and Brandon Powell are sharing No. 3 WR duties. … Mundt has operated as Minnesota’s main receiving tight end over Oliver but has four catches for 27 scoreless yards to show for it. Mundt is not a viable tight end streamer.

Score Prediction: Texans 24, Vikings 16

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

Team Totals: Saints 26, Eagles 23.5

Fantasy’s QB7 (vs. GB) in Week 1 and QB2 (vs. ATL) in Week 2, Jalen Hurts offers matchup-proof qualities driven by his dual-threat acumen, leading all quarterbacks in carries (26) and ranking third in rushing yards (118). A.J. Brown’s (hamstring) absence theoretically lowers Hurts’ ceiling, but he’s an every-week fantasy starter regardless. It can’t hurt that Sunday’s game will be played inside New Orleans’ Superdome and is Week 3’s second-highest-totaled affair. … Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in touches from scrimmage (52) and is playing a career-high 85% of his team’s offensive snaps. He’ll remain an RB1 monster as long as he stays healthy. No team has allowed fewer fantasy running back points through two weeks than the Saints, making Barkley a volume- and talent-based bet here.

In Brown’s Week 2 absence, DeVonta Smith played 100% of Philly’s offensive snaps, ran a pass route on every Hurts dropback, and easily led the team in targets (10) and receiving (7/76/1). Smith has become a near-50% slot receiver under new OC Kellen Moore, which will free him from regular Marshon Lattimore coverage. … Jahan Dotson ran as the Eagles’ No. 2 wideout in Week 2’s loss to Atlanta but pathetically drew one target on 30 routes run. … “Johnny Wilson“, “Britain Covey“, and Parris Campbell are all in third-receiver play. … Including playoffs, Dallas Goedert has topped 50 receiving yards once over his last 10 games. Goedert has settled in as one of fantasy’s host of touchdown-reliant TE1/2s.

Derek Carr’s hot run isn’t limited to the first two games of 2024. Over his last six starts — dating to the end of last season — Carr is 126-of-167 passing (75%) for 1,441 yards (8.6 YPA) with a 17:2 TD-to-INT ratio and an additional rushing score. Carr has earned confident QB1 treatment at home, indoors against an Eagles defense that yielded Week 1’s QB11 finish to Jordan Love and Week 2’s QB9 result to Kirk Cousins. … Working behind what’s so far been a top-five offensive line, Alvin Kamara’s second-level elusiveness and open-field vision have stood out while being repeatedly sprung into space by on-fire OC Klint Kubiak’s play calls. Through two weeks, Kamara leads the NFL in both yards from scrimmage (290) and TDs (5). The Eagles have been drilled for a whopping 6.5 yards per carry by enemy RBs.

Carr’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Rashid Shaheed 9; Kamara and Chris Olave 8; Foster Moreau 4; Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson 3; Jamaal Williams 1. … Being used on both deep routes and manufactured stuff close to the line of scrimmage, Shaheed is pacing the Saints in Air Yards share (43%) and handled three carries in Weeks 1-2. A true home-run hitter, Shaheed has scored eight of his 11 career touchdowns from 45+ yards out. Shaheed has earned locked-in WR2 treatment against an Eagles secondary fellow WRs Jayden Reed (4/138/1), Darnell Mooney (3/88/1), and Drake London (6/54/1) dusted in the first two weeks. … Target volume has been tough to come by because New Orleans’ offense has been so efficient, but Olave looked terrific on Week 2 catch-and-runs and was tackled at the 1-yard line in the first half, setting up one of Kamara’s four TDs. Olave is an upside WR2 play in Sunday’s plus draw. … Hill is dealing with a chest injury, while neither Moreau nor Johnson has seen enough pass-game usage for fantasy-start consideration.

Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Saints 23

L.A. Chargers @ Pittsburgh

Team Totals: Steelers 19, Chargers 17

Bolts-Steelers is Week 3’s lowest-totaled affair, rendering it a matchup to fade in most fantasy football lineup decisions. (I did bet the over on this game’s total at 35.5 points.) … An exception is J.K. Dobbins, who through two weeks leads the NFL in rushing yards (266) and supplanted Gus Edwards as the Chargers’ starting running back in Week 2, also working ahead of Edwards in goal-line situations and on passing downs. Pittsburgh presents an imposing matchup — the Steelers have held enemy backs to 54/204/0 (3.8 YPC) rushing thus far — but Bolts LT Rashawn Slater and RT Joe Alt are blocking out the sun, while Dobbins has separated himself as the Chargers’ most dynamic player on offense. … Justin Herbert’s Weeks 1-2 fantasy finishes were QB24 (vs. Raiders) and QB20 (@ Panthers). In this offense, Herbert is a low-volume passer with subpar weapons.

Herbert’s Weeks 1-2 targets: Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey 11; Josh Palmer 6; Hayden Hurst 5; Dobbins and Will Dissly 4; Edwards 1. … Although Johnston flashed signs of Week 2 promise — tagging Carolina for 5/51/2 receiving on six targets — he now becomes L.A.’s likeliest wideout to draw Steelers top CB Joey Porter Jr.’s coverage. Porter put clamps on Drake London (2/15/0) in Week 1 and Courtland Sutton (1/26/0) in Week 2. … McConkey’s aDOT is a minuscule 8.1 yards. Running his routes near the line of scrimmage, McConkey will need volume to pay fantasy dividends. The Chargers lack passing volume. … Albeit dealing with a knee injury, Palmer has shown no signs of making 2024 fantasy noise. … In a TE timeshare, Hurst and Dissly are canceling out each other’s fantasy relevance.

In prototypical Mike Tomlin/Arthur Smith fashion, the Steelers won their Weeks 1-2 games by 18-10 and 13-6 margins. Expect OC Smith to stick to the script against the Chargers after Justin Fields logged lowly pass-attempt totals of 23 and 20 at Atlanta and Denver. Having faced Gardner Minshew and Bryce Young in its first two contests, L.A.’s defense has yet to be tested. Fields remains a two-quarterback-league starter whose ceiling is entirely tied to rushing production. … Jaylen Warren equaled Najee Harris in Week 2 snaps (47% apiece), yet Harris out-touched Warren 18 to 11 against the Broncos. The Bolts yielded a combined 35/147/0 (4.2 YPC) rushing line to Raiders and Panthers RBs in their first two games. I’m approaching Harris as a quality RB2/flex starter and Warren as a low-end flex option here.

Fields’ Weeks 1-2 targets: George Pickens 11; Pat Freiermuth 8; Van Jefferson 5; Harris, Warren, and Calvin Austin 4; Darnell Washington and MyCole Pruitt 2. … Pickens is a legitimately special receiving talent but will struggle for consistent volume in Pittsburgh’s low-volume passing attack while regularly drawing No. 1 corners. No enemy WR exceeded 61 yards against the Chargers in Weeks 1-2. … Freiermuth has reached 45 receiving yards once over his last 16 regular-season games, scoring two touchdowns during that span.

Score Prediction: Chargers 23, Steelers 20

Denver @ Tampa Bay

Team Totals: Bucs 23.5, Broncos 16.5

Tampa Bay’s D/ST stands out against Bo Nix, who through two NFL starts has a 0:4 TD-to-INT ratio while averaging a microscopic 5.0 yards per pass attempt. … Bucs DTs Vita Vea (MCL) and Calijah Kancey (calf) appear likely to miss Sunday’s game, giving Javonte Williams a plus matchup after he out-touched Jaleel McLaughlin 16 to 3 and out-snapped McLaughlin 40 to 19 in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh. Williams is a passable RB2/flex play and warrants DFS tournament attention based on his favorable draw and workload upside.

Nix’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Courtland Sutton 16; Josh Reynolds 13; Greg Dulcich 11; Devaughn Vele 8; Williams 7; Lil’Jordan Humphrey 6; McLaughlin 5; Marvin Mims 3. … A ball-winning clasher in an offense quarterbacked by a short-game passer, Sutton has just 64 yards on his 16 targets from Nix to date. An obvious misfit for his QB, Sutton is tough to sell as more than a WR4/flex regardless of opponent. … Reynolds led Denver in receiving in Weeks 1 (5/45/0) and 2 (4/93/0). Yet Reynolds was out-snapped by and ran fewer routes than Humphrey last week. … Dulcich has emerged as the Broncos’ main receiving tight end, running 27 routes compared to Adam Trautman’s 11 in last Sunday’s defeat. Dulcich is a Week 3 DFS sleeper with Tampa Bay missing FS Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle/foot).

Fantasy’s overall QB1 two weeks in, Baker Mayfield encounters a Broncos defense that faced Geno Smith (QB8) and Justin Fields (QB24) in Weeks 1-2. Albeit largely due to DC Vance Joseph’s extreme blitz frequency, Denver’s 44% pressure rate is atop the league, threatening Mayfield’s comfort in the pocket. Despite his white-hot start, I’m continuing to value Mayfield in fringe QB1/2 territory. … Rachaad White has turned 25 carries into 49 scoreless yards (2.0 YPC) and missed a handful of Week 2 snaps with a groin injury. Bucky Irving stashers should cling tightly; White remains one of the NFL’s least-efficient runners.

Mayfield’s Weeks 1-2 targets: Chris Godwin 16; Mike Evans 12; White 7; Jalen McMillan 5; Cade Otton 4; Irving 3; Trey Palmer 2. … Godwin has caught 15 of 16 targets from Mayfield for 200 yards and two TDs. Through two weeks, Godwin is PFF’s No. 1-graded wide receiver. … Godwin should mostly avoid Patrick Surtain’s coverage after Surtain chased DK Metcalf (3/29/0) in Week 1 and George Pickens (2/29/0) in Week 2. Evans is at much more risk. … McMillan will probably need an injury to Godwin or Evans to become truly fantasy-relevant. … Otton plays almost every offensive snap but never has plays called for him.

Score Prediction: Bucs 23, Broncos 17

Carolina @ Las Vegas

Team Totals: Raiders 23.5, Panthers 18

Carolina’s QB switch from flailing Bryce Young to competent veteran Andy Dalton should elevate Panthers box-score expectations, even while Las Vegas’ D/ST is even more primed for Week 3 takeoff. The Panthers don’t have anyone capable of blocking DPOY candidate Maxx Crosby. … Chuba Hubbard out-touched Miles Sanders 20 to 15 and out-snapped Sanders 60 to 42 in Weeks 1-2. Sanders’ participation rates did benefit from increased late-game usage in last Sunday’s blowout loss to the Chargers. As enemy running backs have lit up the Raiders for 43/267/2 (6.2 YPC), Hubbard warrants lower-end RB3/flex valuation here.

Dalton appeared in three games for 2023’s Panthers, starting one. Adam Thielen was his go-to guy, commanding a robust 25% target share and parlaying it into 11/145/1 receiving. Thielen remains a desperation WR4/flex option against a Raiders defense that allowed just one enemy wideout to top 40 yards over its first two games. … Diontae Johnson is in the same WR4/flex boat, albeit with no past connection to Dalton. … Jonathan Mingo worked ahead of Xavier Legette as Carolina’s No. 3 receiver in Week 2, although Mingo ran only one more route. This is a full-fade situation until proven otherwise. … Same goes for the Panthers’ tight end room. Tommy Tremble and Ja’Tavion Sanders cancel each other out.

Fantasy’s QB17 (@ Chargers) and QB17 (@ Ravens) in Weeks 1-2, Gardner Minshew is a two-quarterback-league option at home against the Panthers’ lifeless defense. Carolina has surrendered the NFL’s second-most touchdown passes (5) and ranks dead last in sacks (2). … Zamir White out-snapped Alexander Mattison 40 to 14 and out-touched him 12 to 4 in Week 2’s upset of Baltimore. But Mattison remained involved on short-yardage/goal-line plays, while the Raiders’ run game has been broken as a whole. They’ve produced just two rushing first downs through two games. This is a litmus-test spot for HC Antonio Pierce’s running attack; enemy RBs clocked Carolina for 68/333/3 (4.9 YPC) in the first two weeks.

Minshew’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Davante Adams 18; Brock Bowers 17; Jakobi Meyers 8; White and Mattison 6; Tre Tucker 5. … Adams enters Week 3 ranked fourth among NFL wideouts in catches (14) and eighth in yards (169). The Panthers have yet to face a receiving weapon of Adams’ alpha caliber after getting quickly waxed by New Orleans in Week 1, then trampled by the Chargers in Week 2. … Moving at a truly different speed than other tight ends, Bowers banked Weeks 1-2 receiving lines of 6/58/0 and 9/98/0 on target counts of 8 and 9. Bowers has commanded an elite 24% target share; Sam LaPorta was fantasy’s No. 1 tight end in 2023 with a 20% share of Detroit’s passing-game targets. A two-time Mackey Award winner, Bowers has already earned every-week TE1 treatment. … Meyers is averaging 42.7 yards over his last 12 games. … Mayer’s Weeks 1-2 target totals were 3 and 1. The 2023 second-round pick is barely a dynasty TE3 at this point.

Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Panthers 21

Miami @ Seattle

Team Totals: Seahawks 23, Dolphins 18.5

With 2022 seventh-rounder Skylar Thompson standing in for Tua Tagovailoa (concussion, I.R.), expectations for Dolphins skill players should be dramatically reduced. Including a January 2023 playoff start against the Bills, Thompson’s career marks are 86-of-164 passing (52%) for 834 yards (5.1 YPA), a 2:5 TD-to-INT ratio, 11 sacks taken, and 17/28/0 rushing. After the Fins signed Tyler Huntley off Baltimore’s practice squad, I’m betting against Thompson keeping Miami’s starting job for the duration of Tua’s I.R. stint. … I’m dropping Tyreek Hill into WR2 territory and Jaylen Waddle onto the WR3/flex fringe. In 2022, Hill averaged 46 scoreless yards in Thompson’s three near-full games. Waddle averaged 37 yards. … On extra rest following last Thursday night’s loss to Buffalo, De’Von Achane should be geared up for a full workload with Raheem Mostert (chest) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (oblique) banged up. In Weeks 1-2, Achane parlayed touch counts of 17 and 29 into PPR finishes of RB3 (vs. JAX) and RB2 (vs. BUF). Achane leads all RBs in targets (14), receptions (14), and receiving yards (145). Achane was also Thompson’s most-targeted player off the bench last week; they hooked up four times on four passes for 48 yards against the Bills.

Geno Smith logged QB8 (vs. DEN) and QB8 (@ NE) fantasy finishes in Weeks 1-2 and through two weeks ranks sixth in the NFL in passing yards (498), fourth in completion rate (73.9), and seventh in passer rating (97.4). Smith delivered nonstop missiles in last Sunday’s overtime win against the Patriots, especially on outside-the-pocket throws. He’s earned low-end QB1 treatment versus Miami. … Kenneth Walker (oblique) is sidelined again after Zach Charbonnet logged a 96% snap rate and 19 touches in Week 2’s win over New England. The Dolphins are coughing up 5.0 yards per carry and 143.5 total yards per game to running backs. Charbonnet will remain an RB1 play for as long as Walker is out.

Geno’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba 18; Tyler Lockett 9; Charbonnet 8; Noah Fant 7; Walker 3. … 12th in the NFL in receiving yards (158) through two games, Metcalf figures to draw Jalen Ramsey’s Week 3 shadow coverage. … Two weeks in, Smith-Njigba leads Seattle in catches (14) and first-down receiving gains (7). JSN runs 73% of his routes in the slot; fellow slot WR Khalil Shakir led the Bills in Week 2 receiving (5/54/0 on five targets) against Miami. … Turning 32 later this month, Lockett looks to have moved behind Metcalf and Smith-Njigba as Seattle’s No. 3 wideout. Lockett drew two Week 2 targets compared to JSN’s 16 and Metcalf’s 14. … Fant banked Weeks 1-2 receiving lines of 2/11/0 and 1/14/0. Fant has gone 21 straight games without a touchdown.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 17, Dolphins 16

Baltimore @ Dallas

Team Totals: Ravens 24, Cowboys 23

Fantasy’s QB5 (@ KC) and QB10 (vs. LV) in Weeks 1-2, Lamar Jackson now visits Dallas’ JerryWorld dome with his supporting cast fully intact. Jackson’s 2.7% passing TD Rate is bound for positive regression — his career TD Rate is 5.8% — and suggests Jackson could experience an eruption game soon. He already leads all QBs in rushing yards (167). … Week 3 sets up as a Derrick Henry game against a Dallas defense allowing the NFL’s most fantasy points to running backs, including 5.0 yards per carry and five TDs in two games. Justice Hill remains a pass-game niche player relevant only when Baltimore falls behind.

Jackson’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Zay Flowers 21; Isaiah Likely 15; Hill 10; Rashod Bateman 9; Mark Andrews 7; Nelson Agholor 4; Henry 3. … Owning a robust 29.5% target share through two games, Flowers now draws a Cowboys secondary that yielded Week 2 stat lines of 4/96/1 and 4/81/0 to fellow WRs Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave. Including playoffs, Flowers’ last six receiving lines are 7/91/1, 6/37/0, 5/115/1, 4/41/0, 3/106/1, and 9/72/1. … Week 1 tease Likely ran fewer Week 2 pass routes (32) than No. 3 WR Agholor, while Likely’s snap rate dropped from 66% to 49% against the Raiders. Likely remains a TE2 only at Dallas. … Including playoffs, Bateman has finished below 55 receiving yards in 22 straight games. … No actionable data points indicate Andrews is likely to break out of his early-season funk here, yet Andrews remains Jackson’s top target in scoring position and projects to play around 75% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps in Sunday’s potential shootout.

Dak Prescott is a ho-hum fantasy option against a Baltimore defense that in Weeks 1-2 checked Patrick Mahomes (QB12) and Gardner Minshew (QB17), while Prescott himself delivered QB22 (@ CLE) and QB15 (vs. NO) results. Arguably no NFL team’s skill-position talent is thinner than the Cowboys’. … Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott look to be forming a near-50/50 running back timeshare ahead of Week 3’s date with the Ravens, who limited enemy RBs to a 32/74/2 (2.3 YPC) rushing line in Weeks 1-2. They are both poor flex bets.

Dak’s Weeks 1-2 targets: CeeDee Lamb 17; Jalen Tolbert 11; Brandin Cooks 9; Dowdle and Luke Schoonmaker 6; Elliott and Jake Ferguson 5; Jalen Brooks 4. … Lamb is a Week 3 breakout candidate after fellow alphas Davante Adams (9/110/1) and Rashee Rice (7/103/0) touched up Baltimore’s secondary in the first two weeks. … Tolbert logged Week 2 career highs in snaps (86%), targets (9), and receiving (6/82/0) against New Orleans and has arguably passed Cooks as the Cowboys’ No. 2 wideout at this point. Cooks has topped 60 yards in two of 19 games as a Cowboy. … After missing Week 2, Ferguson avoided Dallas’ Week 3 injury report and should be all systems go versus Baltimore. In Weeks 1-2, Chiefs and Raiders TEs combined to catch 16 of 18 targets for 171 yards against the Ravens.

Score Prediction: Ravens 28, Cowboys 27

San Francisco @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: 49ers 25.5, Rams 18.5

Even without Deebo Samuel (calf) and Christian McCaffrey (Achilles, I.R.), this is a green-light spot for Brock Purdy against Los Angeles’ swinging-gate defense. The unit has collapsed after losing DT Aaron Donald (retirement) and DC Raheem Morris (Falcons), allowing league highs in total yards per game (426) and yards per pass attempt (9.4) and the NFL’s second-most points per game (33.5). Kyler Murray had a perfect passer rating versus the Rams in Week 2. Since ball distribution will now be condensed sans Deebo and CMC, onslaughts involving Purdy, Jordan Mason, and some combination of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings are playable in DFS tournaments. … Mason leads the NFL in rushing attempts (48) and missed tackles forced (13) and ranks second in rushing yards (248). The Rams got clocked by Lions and Cardinals RBs for a combined 62/309/3 (5.0 YPC) rushing line in Weeks 1-2. Mason is a top-five fantasy running back play here.

Kittle won’t draw an easier matchup anytime soon, especially after the Rams lost SS John Johnson (shoulder) to I.R. Offenses are a near-perfect 15 of 16 for 132 yards and a TD when targeting tight ends versus L.A. … Expect physical role player Jennings to jump into two-receiver sets across from Aiyuk against the Rams’ sieve-ish secondary. Despite a slow start following his holdout, Aiyuk warrants WR1 treatment here. Jennings is flex playable based on his usage boost and Sunday’s gorgeous matchup. The Rams are missing backend starters Johnson, CB Darious Williams (hamstring, I.R.), and CB Cobie Durant (toe). From a player-props perspective, I’m interested in Kyle Juszczyk catch and receiving yards overs.

The Rams get back LT Alaric Jackson from suspension but are still without LG Steve Avila (knee, I.R.) and C Jonah Jackson (shoulder, I.R.). And I’m not convinced Matthew Stafford is healthy after he took a beating behind Los Angeles’ decimated offensive line in Weeks 1-2. Sans Puka Nacua (PCL, I.R.) and Cooper Kupp (ankle), Stafford is barely two-QB-league material. The 49ers’ D/ST should be teed up confidently. … Kyren Williams is obviously at a major run-blocking disadvantage due to up-front injuries but remains poised for bellcow usage as the Rams’ lone remaining healthy playmaker. Williams finished Week 2 with 16 touches only because L.A. got boat-raced by the Cardinals, and rookie Blake Corum came on for mop-up work. Williams logged 21 touches in Week 1 and should get back there here.

I’m projecting the Rams’ revised three-receiver set to feature Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, and rookie Jordan Whittington with Tutu Atwell maintaining a situational deep-threat role as the No. 4 wideout. A sixth-round pick who starred all preseason, Whittington is arguably the most interesting sleeper of the group. Unimpressive athletically but scrappy, competitive, and technically sound, Whittington is at very least worth rostering in 12- and 14-team leagues with Nacua likely out until midseason and Kupp expected to miss around three games. … Even after he flopped in Week 2’s loss to Arizona — the entire Rams offense did — I’m going back to the Colby Parkinson well as a TE1/2 streamer versus the Niners. Parkinson isn’t going to come off the field with No. 2 tight end Davis Allen (back) still out.

Score Prediction: 49ers 34, Rams 20

Detroit @ Arizona

Team Totals: Lions 27.5, Cardinals 24.5

A to-date disappointment with Weeks 1-2 fantasy finishes of QB19 (vs. LAR) and QB25 (vs. TB), Jared Goff draws a bounce-back spot at Arizona in Week 3’s highest-totaled game. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed the NFL’s second-most yards per pass attempt (9.0) and fifth-highest passer rating (114.4). … Jahmyr Gibbs out-snapped David Montgomery 53 to 30 and out-touched Montgomery 20 to 15 in Week 2’s loss to Tampa Bay. Yet Detroit’s near-even RBBC isn’t going away, as Lions HC Dan Campbell views Gibbs and Montgomery as intrinsically complementary to each other. Sunday’s trip to Arizona profiles as high-scoring, positioning both Gibbs and Montgomery to pay fantasy dividends in a potential shootout.

Goff’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Amon-Ra St. Brown 25; Jameson Williams 20; Gibbs 13; Sam LaPorta 8; Montgomery 5; Kalif Raymond 4. … St. Brown has banked 100+ yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last six games. He’s a high-ceiling WR1 bet in this possible track meet. … Williams looked no worse for wear after entering Week 2 listed as questionable with an ankle injury. He tied St. Brown for the Lions’ team lead in routes run (53) and totaled 94 yards on six touches. Williams enters Week 3 ranked No. 2 in the NFL in receiving yards (200). … LaPorta is a screaming buy-low trade target if you’re willing to bet on Detroit’s offense as a whole. (I am.) LaPorta is playing 84% of the Lions’ offensive snaps.

Fantasy’s QB4 two weeks in, Kyler Murray now draws a Lions defense that’s yielded the league’s sixth-most passing yards (502) and ninth-most fantasy quarterback points in a domed affair with Week 3’s highest total. Murray dropped a perfect 158.3 passer rating on the Rams last Sunday, while Arizona presently ranks No. 2 in the NFL in EPA per play. Albeit in a minuscule sample, Murray is averaging a career-high 58 rushing yards per game. … James Conner’s touch counts over his last seven games are 22, 19, 31, 27, 17, 17, and 25. Conner is locked in as one of the NFL’s premier bellcow backs, far in front of third-round rookie Trey Benson. This game’s scoring projection positions Conner for ongoing fantasy relevance.

Murray’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Trey McBride 15; Marvin Harrison Jr. 11; Greg Dortch 10; Conner 5; Michael Wilson 4. … Leading Arizona in targets and catches (11), McBride is playing 84% of Arizona’s offensive snaps and has caught at least five balls in nine of his last 10 games. He’s an elite every-week TE1. … Slot guy Dortch’s matchup stands out after fellow interior receivers Cooper Kupp (14/110/1) and Chris Godwin (7/117/1) touched up Detroit in Weeks 1-2. … Harrison Jr. leads the Cardinals in receiving yards (134) and TDs (2) after his Week 2 eruption. The Lions have yielded the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy WR points.

Score Prediction: Lions 34, Cardinals 28

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Chiefs 24.5, Falcons 21.5

Patrick Mahomes’ two career contests against Falcons HC Raheem Morris’ past defenses resulted in 6.3 (Week 16, 2020) and 7.6 yards per attempt (Week 12, 2022) with the Chiefs tallying more field goals (5) than passing scores (3). Atlanta’s secondary squeezed both Justin Fields (QB16) and Jalen Hurts (QB2) for less than 185 passing yards and a combined 18.9 fantasy points exclusively through the air, totaling 27/142/1 rushing. … Isiah Pacheco fractured his fibula in the fourth quarter against the Bengals and remains sidelined for the next “6-8 weeks”. With Keaontay Ingram elevated from Kansas City’s practice squad, Kareem Hunt’s 2024 debut will be delayed. He should be preemptively stashed in 12-team formats. Chiefs UDFA Carson Steele (6-foot/228) was quietly brought in for a top-30 visit (h/t Sharp Football’s Rich Hribar) during the pre-draft process and recorded five carries (including one from inside the 5-yard line) before Pacheco was injured, closing the game with two more carries once the latter was ruled out (despite losing a fumble in the first half); Samaje Perine did not have a single touch until Pacheco went down, mixing in for a 3-yard catch and nine routes (24% participation) to Steele’s five (13%). Steele offers the higher touch floor (and multi-goal-line TDs) between the two as an RB3/4. Perine’s receiving role boosts him ahead of Steele in full-PPR leagues. The veteran is the more attractive stacking option with Mahomes in Showdown.

Hollywood Brown (shoulder surgery) is expected to miss the regular season, keeping Rashee Rice’s team-high 29.6% target share afloat. Targeted on 24.9% (16th) of his routes since entering the team’s starting lineup in Week 12 last year, Rice is my favorite CPT in single-game offerings and a top-12 player (at any position) ROS. … Xavier Worthy’s blazing 4.21 40-speed allowed him to separate for a 21-yard rushing touchdown and 35-yard receiving score (albeit against busted coverage) in the season opener; his 14.2% target share around those two plays is lukewarm. That displayed ceiling keeps him entrenched as a WR3/FLEX. … Kansas City’s WR3 by default with a route on 52% of dropbacks, two of Justin Watson’s three targets have traveled 10+ yards downfield. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore have combined for one target (and zero catches) on 26 routes. … Morris’ blend of zone coverages (74%) allowed Pat Freiermuth (4/27/0) and Dallas Goedert (3/38/0) to settle underneath for high reception floors, and only Trey McBride (27.1%) was targeted at a higher rate against zone coverage than Travis Kelce (26.5%) last year. A full-time player (87% participation) in his age-35 season, Kelce’s ceiling is tied to Kansas City’s 24.5-point team total (sixth). Noah Gray did not earn a target in Week 2 but, for Showdown purposes, did see his route participation climb from 33% against the Ravens to 45% versus Cincy.

Heavily scrutinized for the team’s two-condom game plan in Week 1, first-year OC Zac Robinson schemed just four plays from Pistol and increased Atlanta’s usage of play-action (26.5%, ninth) against the Eagles; Kirk Cousins’ velocity and mobility were still issues despite completing 15 of 21 passes (71.4%) for 189 yards (9.0 YPA) and two touchdowns outside of play-action concepts. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo restricted Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow to a 33.3% completion rate on throws 10 yards downfield, rendering Cousins exclusively to 2-QB and Superflex interest. … Atlanta’s surprising 43.9% neutral run-play rate (ninth) has propelled Bijan Robinson to touch counts of 23 and 18 through two games. Derrick Henry (13/46/1) and Zack Moss (12/34/0) combined for 3.2 yards per carry against Spags’ front seven, but Bijan (5.1 yards after contact per attempt) offers significantly more explosiveness than either, additionally running 51 routes (76%) to Tyler Allgeier’s eight (12%) for multiple outs. Allgeier (10/65/0) was used on early downs against Philly but offers thin FLEX value in a tougher matchup on backup’s touches. Cody Main will have a better idea on how to approach Bijan with Allgeier for one-game slates in his Showdown Breakdown.

Without Joey Porter Jr. draping him for 1/7/0 in coverage like Week 1, Drake London’s target share leaped to 24.1% for 6/54/1 on Monday night in Week 2. Similar to London’s game-winning touchdown inside the 10-yard line, Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas most recently bullied Chiefs CBs Nazeeh Johnson and Joshua Williams for multiple goal-line scores. … Atlanta’s only player to run a route on 100% of dropbacks this year, Darnell Mooney has mirrored London in opportunity (10) with a team-high 16-yard depth of target (13th). His elite on-field usage and career 12.4 yards per catch qualify Mooney as a weekly FLEX and salivating single-game option. …. I regret to inform you that Ray-Ray McCloud is not going anywhere, as he ran a route on every dropback for another five-target performance (and 3/42/0 receiving) in Week 2. His behind-the-scenes usage remains strong enough to take him seriously in 14-team leagues. … One could argue Robinson’s week-to-week playbook at the very least has attempted to exploit the opposition’s weakness. And if that is the case, there’s no better matchup at any position than Kyle Pitts’ against a linebacker room that permitted career days to Isaiah Likely (9/111/1) and Mike Gesicki (7/91/0). The TE7 in points per game through two weeks, Pitts has already been fed 67% of his targets within nine yards of the line of scrimmage (for easier reception points) compared to 40% in three seasons under Arthur Smith.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Falcons 20

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

Jacksonville @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Jaguars 20, Bills 25.5

1-7 over their last eight games with 19.1 points per contest (26th), the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence (with one top-10 finish in that time) square off against a Bills secondary that neutralized Kyler Murray (5.2 yards per attempt) and Tua Tagovailoa (5.8) to begin the year. Similar to last season, Lawrence has crumbled under pressure with a 42.9% completion rate (25th) and 5.4 YPA (20th). But the Bills have reached enemy signal-callers at the 12th-lowest clip (31.3%) and Lawrence’s underlying metrics (including 13th in EPA/play) suggest imminent progress. He’s a fringe QB1 (behind MASSIVE protection problems) given his league-high 10 completions of 15+ yards. … Tank Bigsby was injured during a first-quarter kick-off in Week 2, allowing Travis Etienne to handle 76.1% (16) of the team’s backfield touches ahead of D’Ernest Johnson (5). Etienne’s two touchdowns (both from inside the 5) have still accounted for 45% of his fantasy production, plodding for 3.2 yards per carry and, in the season opener, merely out-touching Bigsby 14-12. Buffalo leaked 10/102/1 receiving to James Conner and De’Von Achane, elevating Etienne’s RB2 floor. Given his interchangeable touch count as Jacksonville’s 1B, Bigsby is an intriguing option for two-game slates.

Christian Kirk’s putrid 2/29 production through two games does not include Lawrence’s sailed wide-open 20-yard post route from the season opener. A WR3/4 for being boxed out of two-wide sets, Kirk at the very least benefits on-paper for Buffalo’s third-most targets (31) funneled to the slot. … Gabe Davis has led the Jags in routes run in both games, consistently registering WR4/FLEX numbers (WR44, WR48) to date. For what it’s worth, no defense has schemed more Cover 2 (29.9%) than HC Sean McDermott’s, which Davis spiked for 11 15-yard catches (15th) across 47 games with the Bills. … CB Taron Johnson’s absence benefits Brian Thomas Jr., who’s exploded for gains of 66, 28, 18, and 14 on a 17.9% target share (ahead of Kirk’s 16% mark). The No. 23 overall pick (and current WR3/FLEX) projects to lead the team’s WRs in fantasy points at season’s end. … Brenton Strange replaced Evan Engram following the latter’s multi-week hamstring injury suffered in warmups, running 28 routes (68%) to Luke Farrell’s 7 (17%). Already short stud MLB Matt Milano (torn biceps), backup MLB Terrel Bernard’s absence (torn pectoral) logically boosts Strange’s outlook after Jonnu Smith (6/53) had his way underneath.

Consider Josh Allen’s QB26 performance against the Dolphins an anomaly: it was his fewest carries (2) since Week 6 last year as Buffalo ran a league-low 45 plays and attempted six second-half passes amid a blowout. The 28-year-old has averaged 8.5 carries in 11 career starts under OC Joe Brady, registering three overall QB1 finishes in that time. … Six of Ray Davis’ nine carries in Week 2 came in the fourth quarter with a 31-10 lead, overshadowing James Cook’s commanding 73.3% share of backfield carries until Davis was plugged in to kill the clock. Cook has also handled all of Buffalo’s carries inside the five-yard line through two weeks. Achane’s 7/76 receiving against the Jaguars in Week 1 imply another ceiling performance for Cook, who has run more routes (25) than Ty Johnson and Davis combined (24).

Keon Coleman’s team-high 90% route rate theoretically paints a rosy picture opposite a Jags secondary sans CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring) and potentially S Darnell Savage (quadricep). A thin FLEX option for managed leagues, Coleman’s 21.7% target share from Week 1 is appealing in two-game slates if the field prefers to weigh his 5.5% share against Miami. … Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins round out Buffalo’s three-wide sets with Shakir earning 8 targets (20.3%) to Hollins’ 3 (7%). With four top-36 finishes in his last nine regular-season appearances, Shakir offers the highest floor of the group (Coleman included) weekly. Hollins garners interest exclusively in Showdown for his 11.5-yard depth of target. … Only Marquez Valdes-Scantling has run fewer routes (7) than Curtis Samuel (17) among the team’s receivers. Buffalo’s short turnaround out the gates and extended rest between games is the only reason to have any interest in Samuel for single-game offerings. He’s droppable in 10-team leagues. … Dalton Kincaid missed Week 2 snaps due to a knee to the head but still ran 15 routes to Dawson Knox’s 6. More concerning is that all four (22.2%) of Kincaid’s targets came behind the line of scrimmage for a -2 aDOT (lol). A top-12 option in season-long formats, Kincaid could be outscored by Strange in two-game contests if that safety-blanket usage holds.

Score Prediction: Bills 21, Jaguars 17

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

Washington @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Commanders 19.5, Bengals 27.5

Joe Burrow alleviated any concerns about his injured wrist in improving from fantasy’s QB27 with 5.7 yards per attempt to the overall QB9 (and 7.2 YPA) in Kansas City. Going back to 2023, 16 of the last 18 quarterbacks to face the Commanders have finished as top-12 options including Baker Mayfield (QB2) and Daniel Jones (QB6) under Dan Quinn’s watch. Out-scoring Josh Allen in two-game slates is in Burrow’s range of outcomes. … Devin Singletary (16/95/1) got there with ease in Week 2 against a Commanders front-seven permitting 4.5 yards per carry (17th). Although Zack Moss’ production from scrimmage (13/47, 11/61/1) leaves a lot to be desired, his elite on-field usage — 73% snaps, 70.5% share of backfield touches — boosts him in this spot. With touch counts of 6 and 4 through two games, Chase Brown offers zero standalone value. He remains a priority in our One Injury Away list.

Targeted on 15.6% (65th) of his routes through Week 2, Ja’Marr Chase had previously been targeted on 22.9% (34th) of his routes the past three years; his current pace of 5.5 targets per game would finish well below his previous career-low mark (7.5) if extrapolated. Fresh off a deflating 6/62 showing, there’s no better buy-low player in all of fantasy. … Not even HC Zac Taylor knows how much Tee Higgins (hamstring) will play in his 2024 debut after being removed from the team’s injury report altogether. Washington’s league-high fantasy points allowed to enemy wideouts elevates Higgins to WR3/FLEX territory by default. (Save yourself the stress and don’t watch him play.) … Tee’s return to the lineup additionally pours cold water on Andrei Iosivas’ outlook in 12-team leagues. The 6-foot-3 24-year-old is live in two-game offerings for his big-bodied preference inside the red zone, where he’s converted three targets into two receiving scores. Explosive third-round rookie Jermaine Burton (6-foot-0/196) snagged a 47-yard bomb in the third quarter against Kansas City but did so on only nine routes run (without Higgins mucking up this rotation). … Even with TE Tanner Hudson (knee) ruled out, chasing Mike Gesicki’s Week 2 opportunity (7/91 on 26.4% of Cincy’s targets) as a top-24 option becomes thinner with Higgins in the mix, especially since Gesicki did so on only 50% of Burrow’s dropbacks. Both he and fourth-rounder Erick All (6-foot-4/252), whose route participation leaped from 8% in Week 1 to 34% sans Hudson, should be reserved exclusively for Showdown slates.

Washington’s celebratory win over the Giants included seven field goals and zero offensive scores as Jayden Daniels’ league-low 4.4-yard depth of target has provided 10.2 passing points per game, slotting in as fantasy’s QB4 for his 26/132/2 rushing in OC Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal scheme. Bengals DC Lou Anarumo squeezed Jacoby Brissett (5.0 yards per attempt) and Patrick Mahomes (6.0) through the air, but Daniels’ low-end QB1 outlook continues to derive from his legs. … Already emerging with 6.8 yards per touch, 76.8% of Washington’s RB carries, and as many targets (7) as teammate Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson Jr.’s on-paper matchup as an RB2 is magnified without DTs B.J. Hill (hamstring) and Sheldon Rankins (hamstring) up the gut. Ekeler’s seven catches remain ninth at his position, keeping him afloat as an RB3 in full PPR formats.

Terry McLaurin’s team-high 22% target share has unsurprisingly resulted in WR77 and WR42 finishes due to Kingsbury’s propensity to scheme 65.6% of Daniels’ targets within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. For what it’s worth, Daniels’ only two shots 20 yards downfield were both directed at McLaurin. … Washington’s de facto WR2 through two games, third-rounder Luke McCaffrey’s (6-foot-2/198) three targets include a 2.3-yard aDOT, 123rd among 141 receivers with one target to date. … Activated for his season debut in Week 2, Noah Brown projects to overthrow Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus as early as Monday after earning a 10.3% target share (for 3/56 receiving) on only 12 routes run. Not only is Brown an intriguing option in two-game slates for having spiked three top-10 finishes with the Texans last year, he’s a viable (preemptive) addition in 14-team leagues, too. … Kingsbury’s preference at TE through two games, Zach Ertz has registered 64 routes (81%) ahead of second-rounder Ben Sinnott (6, 7%). Ertz does not offer a ceiling so much as a plug-and-play floor exclusively in PPR and single-game contests.

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Commanders 17