Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 10

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CIN @ BAL | NYG vs. CAR | NE @ CHI | BUF @ IND | DEN @ KC | ATL @ NO | SF @ TB | PIT @ WAS | MIN @ JAX | TEN @ LAC | PHI @ DAL | NYJ @ ARI | DET @ HOU | MIA @ LAR

Thursday Night Football

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Team Totals: Ravens 29.5, Bengals 23.5

The Bengals appear likely to play TNF without WR Tee Higgins (quad/groin) but may get back LT Orlando Brown (knee/leg), who returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday. Joe Burrow did show he’s capable of putting up big box-score stats sans both in Week 9’s five-touchdown dissection of the Raiders, while this contest offers shootout possibilities as Week 10’s highest-totaled game. Only two NFL teams have allowed more fantasy QB points than Baltimore, while the Ravens openly admitted their lack of pass-defense confidence by trading for CB Tre’Davious White (Rams) on Tuesday. … In Zack Moss’ (neck) Week 9 absence, Chase Brown parlayed a career-high 32 touches into 157 yards and a TD while logging 80% of Cincy’s offensive snaps. The Bengals traded for Khalil Herbert on deadline day, but he won’t be ready for much of a workload with two days to prepare. This will be Brown’s backfield for the foreseeable future should rumors Moss is headed to I.R. prove true. There is nothing favorable about Brown’s Thursday night matchup, but Brown’s usage projection and big-play ability give him RB1/2 valuation in a potentially high-scoring affair.

The Ravens’ struggling secondary has hemorrhaged big-time receiving lines of 10/193/2 (Ja’Marr Chase), 7/122/0 (Courtland Sutton), 9/110/1 (Davante Adams), 7/103/0 (Rashee Rice), 7/99/2 (Cedric Tillman), 9/83/2 (Tee Higgins), and 6/53/2 (Terry McLaurin). Chase is a top-three WR1 in Week 10. … Mike Gesicki’s stat lines in Higgins’ last three missed games are 5/100/2, 7/91/0, and 7/73/0. The Ravens have yielded the league’s fifth-most catches (52) and third-most yards (608) to tight ends, and Gesicki will likely have to play even more after the Bengals lost versatile rookie TE Erick All Jr. to a torn ACL last Sunday. … Andrei Iosivas is worth consideration on single-game DFS tournament slates only. His stat lines in Higgins’ four games missed are 3/26/0, 1/10/1, 2/7/2, and 0/0/0. Iosivas did lead all Bengals pass catchers in Week 9 playing time (91%), so we can at least count on him to be out there a ton. … No. 3 WR Trenton Irwin, block-first TE Drew Sample, and No. 3 TE Tanner Hudson are touchdown-or-bust punts in single-game DFS. The Bengals reportedly wanted explosive third-round rookie WR Jermaine Burton to take on an increased role sans Higgins last week, but Burton was scratched after he skipped last Saturday’s walkthrough.

The Ravens enter Week 10 having scored 40+ points in three of their last five games set to face a Bengals defense permitting the NFL’s eighth-most per-game points (25.2). Since Todd Monken became Baltimore’s offensive coordinator at the beginning of 2023, Jackson has faced Cincy DC Lou Anarumo’s defense three times. In them, Jackson is a combined 66-of-101 passing (65.3%) for 849 yards (8.4 YPA) with a marksman-like 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio and 54.3-yard rushing average. … Derrick Henry is a bellcow on a team favored by nearly a touchdown at home. In Ravens wins this year, Henry is averaging 22.2 touches for 154.3 yards and 1.7 all-purpose TDs per game. … Justice Hill could become a factor in one-game DFS in the unlikely — but possible — event the Ravens fall behind on the scoreboard. … I’m stashing Keaton Mitchell where logical in deep season-long leagues. Due back soon from last year’s ACL tear, the dynamic sophomore would have a shot to emerge as Baltimore’s lead running back should something happen to Henry. Mitchell practiced fully this week.

UPDATE: The Ravens officially ruled out Isaiah Likely (hamstring) for Thursday night’s game.

Making a full-on sophomore leap, Zay Flowers enters Week 10 ranked No. 11 among NFL wide receivers in targets (67), No. 12 in catches (46), and No. 5 in yards (654). He cooked Cincinnati’s backend for 7/111/0 on 12 targets in these clubs’ Week 5 meeting and is worth betting on regardless of opponent. … Isaiah Likely’s (hamstring) probable absence fuels Mark Andrews’ projection fire, especially against a Bengals defense surrendering the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy tight end points. Extremely efficient of late, Andrews has caught 18 of 20 targets (90%) for 224 yards (12.4 YPR) and four touchdowns over Baltimore’s last five games. … Playable in season-long-league bye-week crunches, Rashod Bateman does not yet appear at significant risk of losing No. 2 WR duties to Diontae Johnson. At least for the moment, the Ravens look to be viewing Johnson as a punt-return upgrade and threat to No. 3 WR Nelson Agholor. … Charlie Kolar will be playable in single-game DFS if Likely sits.

Score Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 24

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

9:30 AM ET Game (Munich, Germany)

N.Y. Giants @ Carolina

Team Totals: Giants 23.5, Panthers 17

Daniel Jones will live to start another week after HC Brian Daboll put the training wheels on and schemed 57% of Dimes’ passes within nine yards of the line of scrimmage and six (out of seven) designed runs for 54 yards and one score. Even Marcus Mariota (QB8) and Bo Nix (QB2) were successful against the Panthers before Derek Carr soiled that trend. The former duo also exploited Carolina’s inability to contain mobile QBs for 5/4/1 and 11/34/0 from the ground. Jones could follow in their footsteps and threaten top-12 status as an elite streamer. … Tyrone Tracy Jr. initially started in place of Devin Singletary in Week 5 (with 19/130/0 from scrimmage) and never looked back, out-touching the veteran 48-16 with Jones on the field over the past three games. Allowing 3.6 more per-week points (26.9) to enemy backfields than the next closest team, Carolina’s front seven boosts Tracy’s outlook to fringe-RB1 range.

Jammed 32 targets (33.3% share) since returning from injury, Malik Nabers has converted that opportunity into 41, 71, and 59 receiving yards due to Jones’ inefficiency under pressure (63.8% completion rate, 25th) sans LT Andrew Thomas (foot surgery). The Panthers create pressure at the NFL’s lowest rate (22.5%), cementing a vintage top-five performance for the No. 6 overall pick. … With Darius Slayton (concussion) out, Jalin Hyatt is the next man up; the only two games Hyatt ran double-digit routes in occurred with Nabers sidelined in 2-WR sets. Hyatt’s league-high 26.1-yard aDOT can tip the scales for both 14-team leagues and single-game offerings. …The WR40 in per-game points, Wan’Dale Robinson’s 24.9% target share through Week 7 has since cratered to 13.5% and 15.3% the past two games. Although Hyatt’s ceiling is higher, Robinson’s floor remains safer as a WR3/4 for his 4.1-yard aDOT (103rd among 104 qualifiers) without Slayton. … Theo Johnson (6-foot-6/259), fresh off a season-best TE7 finish, has recorded a 68% route rate (16th) to date ahead of this plus matchup: Carolina has ceded usable performances to Taysom Hill (4/41/0 receiving), Adam Trautman (4/85/1), Kyle Pitts (3/70/0), Cole Kmet (3/57/0), and Zach Ertz (4/40/1) in the last month.

Although Carolina’s second win under HC Dave Canales was a positive moment, it can be attributed entirely to Derek Carr’s incompetence — 53% completion rate and singlehandedly getting Chris Olave hospitalized — more so than anything Bryce Young achieved, tossing a 3:3 TD-to-INT ratio for 6.2 YPA off the bench for Andy Dalton. New York has generated pressure on 36.4% (fifth) of dropbacks, and Young has intriguingly averaged 8.1 YPA under duress (ninth) for one touchdown and zero turnovers in the interim — confident peripherals for Superflex and showdown. … Rewarded a four-year, $33.2 million extension this week, Chuba Hubbard’s floor ROS immediately heightened regardless of second-rounder Jonathon Brooks’ status. The latter practiced in full ahead of this contest but remains questionable; taking on Miles Sanders’ 6.3 weekly touches is arguably Brooks’ ceiling in any debut. Hubbard can be trusted as an RB2 given the Giants’ -0.09 EPA/carry (27th) and league-worst 5.19 yards per run allowed.

Xavier Legette has registered 20% and 25% of Carolina’s targets in his last two starts from Young, and a double-digit target share in every game he’s finished (five) sans Adam Thielen (hamstring). No receiver has reached 100 yards against the Giants all season, but Legette’s volume as a WR3/FLEX is too good to ignore. … The Panthers got a fourth-round steal from DAL for Jonathan Mingo, who had already been replaced by Holy Cross UDFA Jalen Coker. He’s only earned 14.1% of Carolina’s targets (compared to Legette’s team-high 20.3% share) the past two games but provides a floor for 14-team leagues. … David Moore (not the Cowboys beat reporter) has seen five (14.2%) and four (16.6%) targets for 6/59/0 receiving in 11 personnel since Week 8. … Tommy Tremble‘s last three absences have hoisted rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders (6-foot-4/245) to box scores of 5/49/0, 6/61/0, and 4/87/0 on an elite 23.6% of Carolina’s targets. He’s a fringe TE1 and captain option Sunday morning if Tremble remains out.

Score Prediction: Giants 27, Panthers 17

New England @ Chicago

Team Totals: Bears 22, Patriots 16.5

New England’s best means of moving the ball against Chicago will be to run relentlessly; since their Week 7 bye, the Bears have been decked for 66/381/3 (5.8 YPC) rushing while losing run-stopping DT Andrew Billings (torn pec) for the year. Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 19 touches on a 77% snap rate over New England’s last two games. Antonio Gibson — who logged Weeks 7-9 snap counts of 10, 13, and 8 — has been all but erased. … Drake Maye has played three full games since taking over as the Pats’ starting quarterback, in them banking weekly fantasy finishes of QB8 (vs. HOU), QB7 (@ JAX), and QB15 (@ TEN). Pass defense is Chicago’s strength — HC Matt Eberflus’ unit has held enemy quarterbacks to the league’s second-fewest fantasy points — rendering Maye a fade-matchup bet heavily contingent on his dual-threat ability. Maye is averaging 50.3 rushing yards per full game.

Maye’s 2024 targets: Pop Douglas 25; Hunter Henry 23; Kayshon Boutte 15; Austin Hooper 11; Kendrick Bourne 10; Stevenson and Ja’Lynn Polk 8. … 5-foot-8, 179-pound Douglas has one touchdown in 23 NFL games. … On throws from Maye, Henry leads the Pats in catches (19), yards (200), and first-down conversions (11). His matchup is improved by the absence of Bears SS Jaquan Brisker (concussion). … Boutte has finished below 60 yards in all seven of his appearances. … Bourne has yet to top 41 yards in a game this year.

On a two-week downward spiral since Chicago’s bye, Caleb Williams returns home to face the Patriots at risk of missing LT Braxton Jones (knee) and RT Darnell Wright (knee) after facing pressure on nearly half of his Week 9 dropbacks against Arizona. The last four signal-callers to square off with New England finished with fantasy results of QB17 (Mason Rudolph), QB17 (Aaron Rodgers), QB19 (Trevor Lawrence), and QB14 (C.J. Stroud). I’m dialing up Williams in two-quarterback leagues but tempering ceiling expectations. … This is a D’Andre Swift-friendly spot against an injury-marred Patriots defense yielding 4.71 yards per carry and 154.1 total yards per game to RBs. Over his last five games, Swift is averaging 21.4 touches for 123 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. Even with Khalil Herbert sent to Cincinnati, Roschon Johnson has been an afterthought behind the Bears’ bellcow back.

D.J. Moore fits the #SqueakyWheel narrative catching flak in Chicago media for on-field effort concerns and having ESPN articles written about his lack of chemistry with Williams. Moore has topped 53 receiving yards in just two games this year. I’m optimistically valuing Moore as a boom-bust WR2 play here. … Cole Kmet’s outlook is upgraded by the expected absence of Patriots SS Kyle Dugger (ankle). … Preseason signs that Keenan Allen might be washed have proven predictive; the 32-year-old is averaging career lows in yards per target (4.7) and yards per reception (9.4). … Rome Odunze has drawn six-plus targets in three of Chicago’s last four games and topped 100 yards for the second time last week. He’s consistently hovering around 90% of the Bears’ offensive snaps. The Patriots present a middling matchup for enemy WRs, yet Odunze’s talent and role keep him in WR3/flex play.

Score Prediction: Bears 23, Patriots 17

Buffalo @ Indianapolis

Team Totals: Bills 26, Colts 22

Fantasy’s overall QB4 on the season, Josh Allen encounters a Colts defense giving up the NFL’s fourth-highest completion rate (70.1%), sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.8), and eighth-highest QB rating (100.2). Allen’s box-score expectation is enhanced beneath Indy’s Lucas Oil Stadium dome. … James Cook hasn’t reached a 60% playing-time clip in any of his last seven appearances but is averaging 17.5 touches for 101 yards and 1.0 TDs over Buffalo’s last two games, operating as the Bills’ definitive No. 1 back over Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. On the season, Indianapolis is hemorrhaging 157 total yards per game to running backs. Cook is an RB1 play here. Johnson and Davis continue to split RB2 duties.

With Keon Coleman (wrist) sidelined and Amari Cooper (wrist) in question, this game sets up beautifully for Khalil Shakir. Allen has completed a sparkling 42 of 45 targets (93%) intended for Shakir for 471 yards (10.5 YPT) and two TDs. … I’m still guessing Cooper will play here. He’s caught five of seven targets from Allen for 69 yards and a touchdown, while Indianapolis has been eaten up by perimeter wideouts like Amari. … I’m staying away from Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel. … Only four teams have conceded more fantasy tight end points than Indianapolis. TE Dalton Kincaid leads Buffalo in targets on the season.

Following an abominable performance in Week 9’s loss to Minnesota — the Colts didn’t reach the opposing red zone once — Joe Flacco faces in-game benching risk in favor of Anthony Richardson. … The Colts are getting back LT Bernhard Raimann (concussion) but won’t have C Ryan Kelly (calf/knee), who was placed on I.R. Jonathan Taylor draws a Bills defense permitting the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy RB points, including 4.6 yards per carry.

Flacco’s 2024 target distribution: Josh Downs 38; Michael Pittman Jr. 23; Adonai Mitchell 15; Alec Pierce 12; Taylor 9. … Downs has drawn nine or more targets in five of the Colts’ last six games, convincingly emerging as Indianapolis’ best receiver with Pittman battling a debilitating back injury. Pittman has failed to clear 40 yards in seven of nine games. … Pierce has totaled 67 scoreless yards over Indianapolis’ last four contests. … Mitchell operated as the Colts’ No. 5 wide receiver behind Downs, Pittman, Pierce, and Ashton Dulin in Week 9.

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Colts 13

Denver @ Kansas City

Team Totals: Chiefs 24.5, Broncos 17.5

Spanked in Baltimore last week, the Broncos stay on the road to face a Chiefs defense that’s yielding the NFL’s fourth-fewest points (18.4) and will play Sunday’s game at full health. Bo Nix’s rushing acumen gives him every-week two-QB-league playability, but his ceiling is a concern in what projects as an anti-scoring situation for Denver as a team. … Broncos HC Sean Payton promised this week that rookie Audric Estime’s usage would increase in the second half of the season. Javonte Williams hasn’t run away with Denver’s lead-RB role, while Jaleel McLaughlin is a niche back. Estime is stash-worthy in season-long leagues. No team has surrendered fewer fantasy running back points than the Chiefs.

Since goose-egging in Week 7, Courtland Sutton has turned in back-to-back 100+ yard performances. Yet Kansas City has allowed the league’s fourth-fewest catches (77) and an NFL-low 851 yards to wide receivers. Sutton is a justifiable yet shaky WR3. … Broncos Nos. 2-5 WR roles are being split between Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and Marvin Mims. It’s a fantasy-unfriendly affair. … Broncos lead TE Adam Trautman’s main responsibility is blocking. Trautman has cleared 20 receiving yards in one of nine games.

The acquisition of downfield and red-zone ball winner DeAndre Hopkins has given new life to Patrick Mahomes’ box-score outlook, initially evidenced by Mahomes’ top-five QB finish against the Bucs in Week 9. I’m still dialing down Week 10 expectations for Mahomes with Patrick Surtain likely to chase Hopkins. The Broncos have given up the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy quarterback points. It doesn’t help that Mahomes is battling a balky ankle. … With Isiah Pacheco (fibula, I.R.) not due back until late this month, Kareem Hunt will remain Kansas City’s feature back for at least a few more games. Over the last month, Hunt has parlayed an average of 25.5 touches into 95.0 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. Here, Hunt is a volume-driven RB1/2 as a high-volume back on a team favored by a TD at home.

Justin Watson is playing the most snaps among Chiefs wideouts but hasn’t topped four targets in a game this season. … Xavier Worthy’s game-by-game receiving totals since Rashee Rice (knee) was lost for the year are 25, 19, 37, and 0. … Hopkins looked back to his prime in Week 9’s win over Tampa Bay, corralling contested catches and winning in the vertical game. I worry about Surtain in this specific draw but am very optimistic Hopkins can eventually flirt with reliable WR1/2 value. I’m treating him as a boom-bust WR3 here. … JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) remains out of commission. … 35-year-old Travis Kelce is unsurprisingly averaging career lows in yards per target (6.8) and yards per catch (8.4) but has drawn double-digit targets in three of Kansas City’s last four games. In last year’s two dates with Denver, Kelce combined to catch 15 of 18 targets (83%) for 182 yards (10.1 YPT).

Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 13

Atlanta @ New Orleans

Team Totals: Falcons 24.5, Saints 21

Finding his groove in OC Zac Robinson’s offense, Kirk Cousins is fantasy’s QB6 over the Falcons’ last five games, while New Orleans is missing three of its top four cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore (dealt to Washington), Paulson Adebo (broken leg, I.R.), and Kool-Aid McKinstry (hamstring). Cousins is a justifiable QB1 at the Superdome. … Bijan Robinson should go ballistic against a Saints defense surrendering 5.1 yards per carry and 138.2 total yards per game to enemy running backs. On a heater, Bijan is averaging 22 touches for 124.8 yards and 1.0 touchdowns over Atlanta’s last four games. … In that same time frame, Tyler Allgeier averaged 10.8 touches, 51 yards, and 0.5 TDs. He is RB3/flex playable here.

Cousins’ 2024 targets: Drake London 70; Darnell Mooney 68; Ray-Ray McCloud 45; Kyle Pitts 43; Robinson 42. … London’s five career stat lines against New Orleans are 6/64/0, 4/41/0, 5/91/0, 7/70/0, and 5/74/0. London suffered a hip pointer in last Sunday’s win over Dallas. … Mooney leads the Falcons in receiving yards (588). The Saints have given up the NFL’s fourth-most 20+ yard completions (31), while Mooney ranks No. 2 in the league in 20+ yard catches (14). … Pitts’ last four stat lines against New Orleans are 0/0, 2/27/0, 2/22/0, and 2/19/0. … McCloud has drawn four targets or fewer in four consecutive games.

Losers of seven straight while missing No. 1 WR Chris Olave (concussions), No. 2 WR Rashid Shaheed (knee, I.R.), LG Lucas Patrick (ankle), and C Erik McCoy (groin), the Saints draw Atlanta severely short-handed. Fantasy’s QB23 in per-game scoring, Derek Carr is barely playable in two-quarterback leagues. … With Kendre Miller (hamstring) on I.R. and Jamaal Williams (groin) hurting, Alvin Kamara is set up for another monster workload. Kamara leads the NFL in touches (196) and all running backs in catches (46).

Taysom Hill is entirely playable in leagues where he’s tight end eligible after logging a 44% snap rate and nine touches in Week 9’s loss to Carolina. … Sans Olave, Shaheed, Bub Means (ankle), and Cedrick Wilson (shoulder), the Saints’ three-receiver set projects as Mason Tipton, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Jermaine Jackson. This is a green-light opening for Atlanta’s D/ST. … Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau figure to share Saints tight end action as part of an offense that may deploy more multi-tight end sets due to its wideout deficit. The Falcons have allowed the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Falcons 28, Saints 20

San Francisco @ Tampa Bay

Team Totals: 49ers 28.5, Bucs 22

This is an eruption spot for Brock Purdy with his supporting cast at near-full strength facing a Bucs defense that let up fantasy results of QB5 (Patrick Mahomes), QB3 (Kirk Cousins), and QB1 (Lamar Jackson) in its last three games. On the year, Tampa has yielded the NFL’s sixth-highest passer rating (101.1). The Bucs will be without top CB Jamel Dean (hamstring, I.R.) and first-team SS Jordan Whitehead (quad). … All signs point to Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) making his 2024 debut at Tampa. 49ers No. 2 RB Jordan Mason is still battling a recurring AC joint shoulder sprain. I’m not forecasting a full workload for CMC here — Isaac Guerendo has made a substantive case for change-of-pace, between-the-tackles carries — but McCaffrey is always an elite RB1 option when active. The Bucs have coughed up the NFL’s third-most catches (54) and third-most receiving yards (439) to enemy running backs.

Deebo Samuel sustained rib and oblique injuries in San Francisco’s pre-bye victory over Dallas but should be all systems go here. The Bucs have given up the league’s fifth-most catches (124), eighth-most yards (1,416), and fifth-most touchdowns (10) to enemy wide receivers. … Out since Week 6 with a hip injury, Jauan Jennings is the favorite for 49ers No. 2 receiver snaps at Tampa Bay. When everyone is healthy, Jennings is ahead of Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing on San Francisco’s WR depth chart. … George Kittle doesn’t appear on Week 10’s injury report at all. The Bucs have permitted the NFL’s third-most fantasy points to tight ends, while Kittle is by far leading all TEs in per-game fantasy points.

Baker Mayfield faces a 49ers defense permitting the NFL’s sixth-lowest completion rate (61.9%) and fourth-lowest passer rating (78.8), while Tampa Bay is missing top WRs Chris Godwin (ankle, I.R.) and Mike Evans (hamstring). Top backups Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Sterling Shepard (hamstring/hip) are likewise debilitated. … Although Rachaad White has re-emerged as Tampa’s lead back, White’s touch counts are six and 11 over the Bucs’ last two games, while Bucky Irving’s are 16 and 10 in the same time frame, and Sean Tucker is involved enough to be annoying. This remains a fantasy-unfriendly three-way committee.

Tampa Bay’s pass-catcher corps remains a mess aside from Cade Otton, who’s locked himself in as a top-five TE1 by drawing double-digit targets in three straight games. He has played 93% of the Bucs’ 2024 offensive snaps. … Godwin and Evans are out. McMillan and Shepard are in danger of sitting. In order, next-in-line Bucs WRs are Rakim Jarrett, Ryan Miller, and Trey Palmer. Jarrett led that trio in Week 9 playing time and pass routes run.

Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Bucs 21

Pittsburgh @ Washington

Team Totals: Commanders 24, Steelers 21.5

Pittsburgh returns from Week 9’s bye after topping 400 yards of offense in back-to-back games for the first time as a franchise since 2018. Feeling themselves, the Steelers dealt for Mike Williams (Jets) on Tuesday. Russell Wilson was fantasy’s QB8 in his Weeks 7-8 starts and now faces a Commanders defense permitting the NFL’s fifth-highest passer rating (103.9) before resorting to trading for CB Marshon Lattimore (Saints) on deadline day. Wilson is a borderline but justifiable QB1/2. … The best way to attack Washington’s defense remains on the ground, where enemy backs have carved the Commanders for 5.2 yards per carry. Najee Harris returns from the off week averaging 19.7 touches for 118.3 yards and 0.7 TDs over his last three games, including 100+ rushing yards in each. … Jaylen Warren’s touch counts in that same time frame are 11, 14, and 9. The Steelers highly value Warren’s pass-protection skills but consider Harris their tone-setting feature back.

UPDATE: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren‘s Week 10 outlooks are improved by C Zach Frazier‘s (ankle) return to a full practice on Wednesday. Even as a rookie, Frazier was a difference-making blocker before missing Pittsburgh’s previous two games.

George Pickens has commanded 26% of Wilson’s targets in two starts. Williams is unlikely to cut into that number while learning a new offense on the fly, while Lattimore is likewise unlikely to make a tangible impact six days post-acquisition. I like Pickens as an upside WR2 here. Wilson’s propensity for throwing downfield and into the end zone suits Pickens’ style. … Until Williams gets fully stretched out, I expect him to share time with Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson as complementary WRs in a run-first offense. … Pat Freiermuth hasn’t hit 60 yards all season and has drawn three targets or fewer in four straight games.

Jayden Daniels has been a high-floor QB1 all year, banking 19.9 FF points in seven of nine starts. Yet the possibility that Pittsburgh controls the ball by running it down Washington’s throat creates concern regarding Daniels’ ceiling, while on the season the Steelers have yielded the NFL’s fourth-fewest fantasy QB points. I’m approaching Daniels as a mid-range rather than top-tier QB1 this week. … Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) seemed close enough to facing the Giants last week that I tentatively expect him to face the Steelers. He still obviously won’t be 100%, and Austin Ekeler’s role is locked in. Both look like TD-or-bust flex options.

Fantasy’s overall WR3 in Weeks 3-9, Terry McLaurin has earned WR1/2 valuation, even against a tough opponent like Pittsburgh. From the jump, Daniels and McLaurin’s on-field rapport has been nearly flawless. … Still operating as Washington’s clear No. 2 wideout, Noah Brown has six-plus targets in three of the Commanders’ last four games. He’s WR4/flex playable, even in an adverse matchup. … Zach Ertz is a volume-reliant compiler at this stage of his 14-year career. He’s exceeded five targets in two of nine games this season.

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Commanders 20

Minnesota @ Jacksonville

Team Totals: Vikings 25.5, Jaguars 21.5

Among fantasy’s most consistent per-game quarterback producers, Sam Darnold visits the Jags having scored at least 17.3 standard-league points in six of his last seven starts. His weapons cast is now full with T.J. Hockenson back, while Jacksonville’s defense has been flamed for the NFL’s third-most yards per pass attempt (8.2) and a league-high 113.4 passer rating. I’m rolling with Darnold as a rock-solid QB1 play. … Over the Vikings’ last three games, Aaron Jones is averaging 21 touches for 97.7 yards and 0.3 touchdowns, while HC Kevin O’Connell has juggled No. 2 back duties between Ty Chandler and Cam Akers. (Akers was Minnesota’s clear RB2 last week.) Enemy backs have tagged the Jaguars for the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy points. … In the event of a Jones injury — his durability history is hardly clean — I still suspect the Vikings would roll with a near-even Chandler-Akers split.

Despite Minnesota’s early-season bye, Justin Jefferson leads the NFL in receiving yards (783) and is averaging career bests in yards per catch (16.3) and yards per target (11.3). The Jaguars have coughed up the league’s sixth-most receptions (118), third-most yards (1,576), and fifth-most TDs (10) to WRs. … Jordan Addison has drawn five targets or fewer in five of six appearances, yet this matchup is favorable enough to dial up Addison in WR3/flex spots. … T.J. Hockenson logged a 45% snap rate in Week 9’s season debut but emerged unscathed and caught three of four targets for 27 yards against the Colts. I’m betting we’ll see Hockenson at near-full playing time this week. In a friendly matchup — the Jaguars are giving up the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends — I am penciling in Hockenson as a low-end TE1.

UPDATE: The Jaguars ruled out Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) for Sunday’s game, severely downgrading the outlooks of his entire supporting cast and upgrading the Vikings’ D/ST. Lawrence is apparently at risk of requiring surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder, which would likely end his season.

From a coaching standpoint, Vikings DC Brian Flores versus Jaguars offensive bosses HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor projects as a decisive advantage in Minnesota’s favor to the extent I’m betting against Trevor Lawrence turning in fantasy-friendly Week 10 results. On the season, Minnesota has held opponents to the league’s eighth-lowest passer rating (81.8) while ranking sixth in sacks (27). … Travis Etienne’s Week 9 return from his hamstring injury created a three-way RBBC wherein Tank Bigsby led the position group in snaps (28) and touches (8) ahead of Etienne (17, 5) and D’Ernest Johnson (13, 2) against the Eagles. Three-man running back committees are to be full-on faded in fantasy football.

Brian Thomas Jr. was listed as questionable (shoulder) entering Week 9 yet wound up leading Jaguars pass catchers in both routes run and snaps against Philadelphia. The Vikings have let up the league’s third-most catches (129), fourth-most yards (1,571), and fifth-most TDs (10) to wide receivers. … Before missing Week 9, Gabe Davis (shoulder) failed to top 62 yards in each of Jacksonville’s initial seven games. … Parker Washington was forced to play outside receiver in Davis and Christian Kirk’s (collarbone, I.R.) Week 9 absence, while practice-squad call-up Austin Trammell manned the slot. Considering the convoluted and ultimately talent-deficient situation behind him, I’m approaching Thomas as the Jaguars’ lone fantasy-viable wide receiver play here. … Evan Engram’s target counts in the last three games in which he’s played at least 60% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps are 10, 5, and 10. Year over year, Engram’s ability to command target volume is nearly unrivaled among TEs.

Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Jaguars 20

Tennessee @ L.A. Chargers

Team Totals: Chargers 23, Titans 16

The Chargers’ D/ST is an elite play versus Tennessee with Will Levis (shoulder) back from his three-week absence. Levis was a turnover-prone, sack-taking machine before going down, while the Titans last week lost $50 million C Lloyd Cushenberry to an Achilles tear. As the right side of Tennessee’s offensive line was already a mess, Bolts DE Joey Bosa should go off here. … Tyjae Spears is likely to return from his three-week hamstring pull, yet Spears had already been lapped by Tony Pollard as Tennessee’s primary running back. OL disruptions plus an adverse overall offensive environment work against Pollard, while the Chargers have permitted the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. … You’re on your own betting on any Titans pass catchers with Levis reinstalled under center. The Chargers are allowing the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.4) and eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Titans have no fantasy-relevant TEs.

The Chargers took their bye in Week 5. In four games since, Justin Herbert is fantasy’s overall QB9 averaging 286.8 passing yards as part of an opened-up offense. This week, Tennessee appears likely to miss top CB L’Jarius Sneed (quad) and definitely won’t have FS Quandre Diggs (Lisfranc surgery). I’m approaching Herbert as a viable if lower-end QB1 play here. … J.K. Dobbins has handled 16+ touches in seven straight games. Sunday’s run-game draw is unfavorable on paper, yet Dobbins’ workloads have been consistent, and he checks a big box as a featured running back on a team favored comfortably at home.

Despite the Chargers’ recent passing-game expansion, Ladd McConkey has cleared 70 yards just once through eight games. The Titans have allowed the NFL’s fewest fantasy WR points. … Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer shared No. 2 WR duties behind McConkey in Week 9’s win over Cleveland. Both scored long touchdowns on questionable coverage by Browns CB Denzel Ward. McConkey remains the Bolts’ lone confident pass-catcher bet.

Score Prediction: Chargers 23, Titans 13

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Team Totals: Eagles 25.5, Cowboys 18

Jalen Hurts is fantasy’s QB1 in four games since Philly’s Week 5 bye, while Dallas has given up the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy quarterback points. With A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all ready to go, Hurts is an easy first-tier QB play. … The Cowboys have conceded a crisp 4.58 yards per carry and 150.3 total yards per game to running backs, while Saquon Barkley ranks No. 2 in the NFL in rushing yards (925), No. 2 in yards from scrimmage (1,071), and No. 3 in all-purpose TDs (8). Barkley is firmly in play to win 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year. He’s neck and neck with Derrick Henry for fantasy’s RB1.

MRI results showed A.J. Brown’s Week 9 knee tweak wasn’t severe, and he emerged from Week 10’s practice week unscathed. In four meetings with the Cowboys since joining the Eagles, Brown’s stat lines are 9/94/0, 7/66/1, 6/103/0, and 5/67/1. … DeVonta Smith’s stat lines versus Dallas in that same time frame are 5/73/0, 3/51/1, 8/113/2, and 5/44/1. This year’s Cowboys have conceded the NFL’s 10th-most fantasy points to WRs. … Out since Week 6, Dallas Goedert (hamstring) has resumed practicing fully. Fantasy’s TE1 in Weeks 1-4 before he got hurt in Week 5, Goedert is a near-every-down player in a prolific offense.

Cooper Rush’s quarterback insertion creates uncertainty throughout Dallas’ pass-catcher corps. CeeDee Lamb is dealing with an AC-joint shoulder sprain and has hardly seen the field with Rush. … As for Jake Ferguson, the Eagles have allowed the NFL’s third-fewest fantasy tight end points. … With Dallas’ season circling the drain, I’m stashing Trey Lance in two-QB and Superflex leagues. Lance is a dynamic runner and should see the field soon.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 17

N.Y. Jets @ Arizona

Team Totals: Cardinals 23.5, Jets 22.5

Already a mediocre to-date fantasy producer, Aaron Rodgers now faces an Arizona defense that checked Justin Herbert (QB15), Tua Tagovailoa (QB23), and Caleb Williams (QB29) over the last three weeks. Having gone 31 straight regular-season games without passing for 300 yards and averaging a microscopic 4.8 rushing yards per game this year, Rodgers is just a two-QB-league play. … Over Gang Green’s last four games, Breece Hall is averaging 18.8 touches for 121 yards and 0.25 TDs. Arizona is yielding a crisp 4.6 yards per carry and 148.9 total yards per game to enemy backs. This is an eruption spot for Hall in what profiles as a neutral-script game setting up New York’s offense to lean on its workhorse back. Jets No. 2 RB Braelon Allen has handled six touches or fewer in four of Gang Green’s last five games.

Davante Adams is averaging 8.7 targets in three games since the Jets acquired him from Las Vegas. Arizona has yielded the NFL’s eighth-most catches (113) and seventh-most yards (1,427) to wide receivers. I’m locking in Adams as an upside WR2. … Garrett Wilson has cleared 90 yards in four of New York’s last five games while checking in as FF’s WR2 over the three weeks since Adams’ acquisition. Nearly eight years younger than Adams, Wilson offers the higher ceiling between the two. … With Allen Lazard (chest) on I.R. and Mike Williams shipped to Pittsburgh, New York’s non-fantasy-notable third WR candidates are Xavier Gipson and rookie Malachi Corley. Gipson has done next to nothing in his two-year career. Corley dropped the ball before entering the end zone on a surefire Week 9 TD, a miscue that could delete him from Rodgers’ good graces. … New York’s lone notable pass-catching tight end, Tyler Conklin has drawn four targets or fewer in four straight games.

The strength of the first-place NFC West Cardinals is their rushing attack keyed by James Conner, who is averaging 21.3 touches for 113.3 yards and 0.3 touchdowns over his last three games. The Jets present a middling run-defense matchup — permitting 4.2 yards per carry to enemy backs — but Conner’s assured workload renders him an every-week RB1. … No. 2 back duties are being shared between pass-down specialist Emari Demercado and rookie Trey Benson; Benson out-snapped Demercado 16 to 14 in Week 9’s win over the Bears and out-touched him 9 to 6. … The Jets have held QBs to the NFL’s third-fewest fantasy points. In what profiles as a low-scoring affair, Kyler Murray is a fringe QB1/2.

Murray’s 2024 target distribution: Trey McBride 60; Marvin Harrison Jr. 55; Michael Wilson 40; Greg Dortch 32; Conner 25; Demercado 14. … In addition to targets, McBride leads the Cardinals in catches (45), yards (481), and first-down conversions (23) on Murray’s throws. … The Jets have yielded the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Held under 65 yards in seven of nine games this season, Harrison is a boom-bust WR2 starter against Gang Green. … Wilson has banked fewer than 40 yards in 11 of his last 14 games. … Slot man Dortch has begun losing snaps to Zay Jones, canceling out each other’s fantasy relevance.

Score Prediction: Jets 21, Cardinals 17

Sunday Night Football

Detroit @ Houston

Team Totals: Lions 26, Texans 22.5

Similar to Lamar Jackson’s hit-or-miss fantasy production due to the Ravens being too good last year, Jared Goff has not attempted more than 25 passes since Week 2 within a Lions unit averaging 6.1 yards per play (fifth) and an NFL-best 32.3 weekly points. I question Houston’s ability to fight back in this spot, but Goff’s QB2 floor is safe regardless of game script; he’s completed 82.8% of his passes (lol) for a 13:1 TD-to-INT ratio in six starts around Detroit’s bye. … #EstablishingIt for the second-lowest Expected Pass Rate to date, Sonic (Jahmyr Gibbs) and Knuckles (David Montgomery) are in a terrific on-paper matchup opposite a Texans front seven allowing 4.7 yards per carry (ninth) and the third-highest rate (7.4%) of explosive runs. For what it’s worth, 50 (48.5%) of Gibbs’ rushes have come with the Lions nursing a 7-point lead, per Fantasy Points Data; Montgomery possesses the higher floor for out-touching Gibbs 21-9 inside the 10. Consider both fringe RB1s.

The lack of passing volume has not affected The Sun God’s weekly floor, hauling in 30 consecutive targets with a touchdown in six straight games. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains a confident WR1 for his team-high 26.9% target share, sixth best at his position. … Jameson Williams returns from suspension on Sunday Night Football against an airtight secondary that’s sanctioned a 23.4% catch rate (31st) on throws 20 yards deep (where Jamo has seen a team-high 24% of his targets). While he has not earned 20% of Detroit’s targets in any game since the season opener, Williams’ field-flipping 4.39 40-speed qualifies him as a boom-bust FLEX. … Oddly enough, Tim Patrick averaged 20.7 yards per catch (for 7/145/0) as the team’s WR3 over his last three games with Williams compared to his total 2/12/0 in two starts for the former No. 12 pick. … Sam LaPorta’s 33.3% and 15% target shares the last two weeks without Jamo are a thing of the past for LaPorta’s 8.4% share with the team at full strength. He’s a sell-high TE2 before being deployed against a Houston defense allowing 20.1 yards per game (32nd) to TEs.

C.J. Stroud’s outlook remains bleak without Nico Collins (hamstring) and Stefon Diggs (torn ACL), completing 55.4% of his passes for 6.3 YPA, 16 sacks, and three fumbles as the QB14, QB29, QB25, and QB19 over the last month. Detroit has not permitted multiple TDs to a single signal-caller, rendering Stroud to a QB2 for Superflex leagues until Nico returns. … Joe Mixon has incredibly compiled box scores of 33/178/1, 15/132/2, 27/124/2, 29/134/1, and 24/106/1 in the only five games he’s finished, out-touching the rest of Houston’s backfield 128-26 in those starts. The Lions have suddenly leaked 100+ yards from scrimmage to enemy RB1s sans EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (leg surgery) the past three games, elevating Mixon as an every-down top-12 play despite Z’Darius Smith’s arrival from Cleveland.

The only competent receiver for Stroud to lean on, Tank Dell has soaked up 21.5% (29th) of Houston’s targets without Collins and, in his first start with Diggs sidelined, a season-best 31% share. Detroit has ceded the second-most points per game (15.8) to receivers from the slot, where Dell ran a 2024-high 30% of his routes in Week 9 without Diggs. … Robert Woods is also capable of exploiting the Lions’ weakness from the slot for showdown purposes following his team-high 65% route rate from that area of the field. Woods’ three receptions over the last six quarters without Diggs have practically matched John Metchie’s (3) and Xavier Hutchinson’s (2) receptions in the last month without Collins. I’m ignoring the latter two on single-game slates unless their salaries allow for an optimal stars-and-scrubs lineup. … Registering five-year lows in yards per target (5.5) and game (27.1), Dalton Schultz at the very least boasts a reception floor with six targets in four of his last five starts. He has yet to reach 60 receiving yards or score a touchdown, while the Lions have permitted just 3.8 weekly points (31st) to his position. Gross.

Score Prediction: Lions 31, Texans 17

Monday Night Football

Miami @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: Dolphins 24.5, Rams 26

It’s the moment you’ve been waiting for if rostering any Dolphins ahead of Monday Night Football: Following in Raheem Morris’ footsteps with a blend of zone coverage (73.9%, ninth) and, in particular, Cover 3 (39.9%, fourth), Rams DC Chris Shula is about to be cornered by Tua Tagovailoa, who’s completed a league-best 79% of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt against said scheme (per Fantasy Points Data). While Los Angeles’ pass rush has improved in three games out of their bye with a 38.1% pressure rate (fourth), Sam Darnold and Geno Smith combined for 10.2 yards per attempt and five touchdowns the past two weeks. … Boasting target shares of 19.4%, 18.9%, 21%, and 29.6% as the overall RB2 (behind Alvin Kamara) in Tua’s four starts, De’Von Achane’s two carries inside the 10-yard line (including one from the 5) in Week 9 arguably gifts him the highest matchup-proof ceiling of any RB in fantasy moving forward. Further complicating matters behind him, Raheem Mostert’s sixth fumble in his last 16 games during the third quarter against Buffalo forced fourth-round speedster Jaylen Wright onto the field for five touches to Mostert’s one down the stretch. I do not expect Mostert to be boxed out completely, but Wright — 26/155/0 (5.9 yards per carry) over his last four games with a 4.38 forty and the second-longest broad jump (11’2″) of any RB in NFL Combine history — should be stashed in 12-/14-team leagues ahead of any increased usage.

Jury’s out on whether Tyreek Hill (wrist) will actually be available for this game; HC Mike McDaniel ominously said, “If [Hill’s] body lets him, he’ll play.” Similar to Puka Nacua’s status in lineups ahead of his debut, managers should simply start Tyreek if he plays: Enemy WR1s have posted 19.5 (Justin Jefferson) and 37 fantasy points (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) against Los Angeles the last two weeks. Note that Jaylen Waddle registered a 37.1% target share with Hill off the field prior to this season (per Sports Info Solutions), boosting the former to WR1 status if Hill were scratched. Waddle should be acquired for pennies regardless of Hill’s availability given his 22% target share behind Tyreek last year (compared to 2024’s measly 13.7% mark). … Odell Beckham’s availability has directly impacted sixth-rounder Malik Washington (5-foot-9/191) with the latter’s route participation plummeting (37.5% < 22.5% < 13.3%) in three games out of their bye. Beckham’s season-high 30% route rate from Week 9 resulted in 3/30/0. … Jonnu Smith has been fed in four games around Miami’s bye, earning at least 21% of the team’s targets in three of four games and, on the season, a 19.4% share. Brock Bowers (10/93/0), Josh Oliver (2/30/1), and A.J. Barner (4/27/0) have provided usable scores against the Rams post-bye.

Unable to buy a QB1 score before Week 8, Cooper Kupp’s and Nacua’s returns have lifted 36-year-old Matthew Stafford to QB6 and QB14 finishes with six touchdowns (to two picks). Averaging 5.6 yards per play the last two weeks, Los Angeles’ offense will be further improved with starting G/Cs Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila both activated from I.R. Miami had limited QBs (amid their soft schedule) to the league’s fewest points per game until running into Kyler Murray (22.2) and Josh Allen (22.1) of late. … Kyren Williams most recently logged 76 snaps to Blake Corum’s one, keeping a stranglehold of the team’s RB1 role. The Dolphins have been busted open for 2.7 yards after contact per attempt (second), cementing Williams’ top-five outlook.

Kupp has earned 23.5% and 33.3% target shares since returning from injury, seeing 14 targets in his latest game after Nacua got ejected in the second quarter; to that point, Puka had quietly mirrored Kupp in routes run (89%) as a full-time player. The extra rest between kickoffs should help Nacua further recover from his in-practice knee injury as a neck-and-neck WR1 alongside Kupp. I lean Nacua if forced to choose one given his insane 43% target-per-route-run rate from Week 8. … Demarcus Robinson has averaged 15.3 fantasy points (WR14) with a team-high 11 end-zone targets to Kupp’s nine over his last nine games from 3-WR sets behind his superhero teammates. Two touchdowns weekly are not expected, but he’s a viable FLEX option for this elite environment. Tutu Atwell has been phased out completely (four routes) with the team at full strength. … Colby Parkinson has totaled 2/17/0 (on two targets) as an afterthought behind the Rams’ WRs. He’s interesting (albeit slightly) exclusively in showdown for Miami’s performance against TEs (11/135/0 and 5/34/1) the past two games.

Score Prediction: Rams 31, Dolphins 28