Evan Silva’s Matchups: Thanksgiving

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CHI @ DET | NYG @ DAL | MIA @ GB

Thanksgiving Thursday

12:30 PM ET Game

Chicago @ Detroit

Team Totals: Lions 29.5, Bears 19

Even with Caleb Williams coming off consecutive highlight-filled games under interim OC Thomas Brown, Caleb’s Week 13 prospects are fair to question on the road against a Lions defense yielding an NFL-low 72.7 QB rating. There are enough positives to dial up Williams as a DFS tournament start on Thanksgiving-only slates, however. Chicago-Detroit will be played indoors. Lions top CB Carlton Davis (knee/thumb) is in danger of missing after No. 2 CB Terrion Arnold (groin) sat last week. Bears-Lions is Thursday’s highest-totaled game, while Williams is fantasy’s QB9 since Brown took over. … Although Roschon Johnson’s on-field playing time has expanded with Brown as OC, D’Andre Swift out-touched Johnson 16 to 3 in Week 12’s loss to Minnesota and remains entrenched as the Bears’ lead back ahead of Thursday’s #RevengeGame against the team that drafted and then traded him. Swift has at least 16 touches in eight straight games. Johnson is a touchdown-reliant Thursday dart.

Caleb’s Weeks 11-12 target distribution: Keenan Allen 23; Rome Odunze 20; D.J. Moore 14; Cole Kmet 13; Swift 6; Johnson 2. … My eyeball test tells me 32-year-old Allen looks stiff and robotic, but he’s tallied four-plus catches in four straight games and is averaging 9.8 targets during that span. Allen is a volume-driven WR3/flex play. … Odunze has drawn 10 targets in each of Brown’s two games calling plays. Detroit’s injuries at perimeter CB benefit Odunze, who runs 76% of his routes outside. … Moore is an 84% perimeter player. On the season, the Lions have allowed the NFL’s 10th-most fantasy wide receiver points. … At 97% and 100%, Kmet has set back-to-back season-high snap rates with Brown as OC. He’s got 10 combined catches in those two games and deserves locked-in TE1 valuation.

Winners of nine straight games — six by double digits — the Lions tend to do whatever they want on offense to the extent that they can lean into narratives. This week’s biggest is ex-Bear David Montgomery’s #RevengeGame versus Chicago, who enemy backs have clipped for a combined 142/719/5 (5.1 YPC) rushing line since Week 7’s bye. … Chicago’s run-funnel defense also plays into the hands of Jahmyr Gibbs, who is healthier than Montgomery (shoulder) and set season-high marks in touches (24) and snap rate (67%) in Week 12’s win over Indianapolis. Gibbs has scored 17 touchdowns over his last 16 regular-season games. … Jared Goff has been a sturdy QB1/2 producer all year but faces Week 13 hurdles with LT Taylor Decker (knee) looking unlikely and Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) out of early-week practice. Only three NFL teams have allowed fewer fantasy QB points than Chicago.

St. Brown still seems likely to play, although his historical production versus Chicago has been all over the place. In four meetings with Matt Eberflus’ defense since Eberflus took over as Bears head coach, ARSB’s receiving lines are 3/21/0, 8/77/1, 4/62/0, and 10/119/0. … Kalif Raymond (foot) appears unlikely to face Chicago, raising playing-time projections for Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick. In three games since returning from suspension, Williams has caught 12 of 18 targets (67%) for 241 yards (13.4 YPT) and a touchdown plus two rushing attempts for six yards. Nothing about Williams’ on-paper matchup is favorable; he’s a big-play bet. … Patrick has been a low-volume efficiency machine, securing 17 of his last 19 targets (89%) for 246 yards (12.9 YPT). He’s a Thanksgiving-only DFS sleeper. … Sam LaPorta has drawn six targets in three of his last four appearances; Chicago has given up the NFL’s 11th-most yards to tight ends. I’m approaching LaPorta as a low-end TE1 starter.

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Bears 20

N.Y. Giants @ Dallas

Team Totals: Cowboys 20.5, Giants 16.5

UPDATE: Drew Lock is expected to start in place of Tommy DeVito (forearm). Our projections team slightly upgraded the outlooks for Giants skill-position players based on Lock’s superior track record, although I remain high on Dallas’ D/ST. Lock has struggled at every opportunity given him by the Giants to the extent that he lost New York’s No. 2 quarterback job to DeVito.

Dallas’ D/ST is a green-light play against Tommy DeVito, who over his last seven full games absorbed sack totals of 4, 7, 0, 6, 9, 5, and 6. Both Giants starting tackles, LT Jermaine Eluemunor (quad) and RT Evan Neal (hip), missed early-week practice. … Another Tyrone Tracy Jr. fumble and decidedly negative script contributed to the Giants deploying a three-man RB rotation involving Tracy, Devin Singletary, and Eric Gray in Week 12’s blowout loss to Tampa Bay. I’m nevertheless standing by Tracy as an upside bet against a Dallas defense enemy backs have tagged for 4.5 yards per carry and the NFL’s third-most fantasy points.

Not targeted in the first half of Week 12’s defeat, Malik Nabers is back on #SqueakyWheel alert after questioning HC Brian Daboll’s play-calling following the Giants’ loss to Tampa Bay. The Cowboys have surrendered the NFL’s 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, while top Dallas CB Trevon Diggs (groin/knee) missed last week. … Wan’Dale Robinson is scoreless since Week 5 and hasn’t topped 51 yards since Week 4. Robinson does have five-plus catches in nine of 11 appearances this year and is always playable in full-PPR settings. … The Giants’ No. 3 receiver position appears to have devolved into a rotation between Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt; they finished Week 12 with pass-route totals of 21 and 22, respectively. … Theo Johnson is a mildly intriguing Thanksgiving-only DFS slate sleeper having drawn six targets in three consecutive games and cleared 35 yards in four straight.

Cooper Rush won’t have RG Zack Martin (ankle/shoulder) and TE Jake Ferguson (concussion) against New York, while CeeDee Lamb (back/foot), LG Tyler Smith (ankle/knee), and Rush himself (knee) are banged up. The Giants’ allowance of the NFL’s third-highest completion rate (70.8%), fifth-most yards per pass attempt (7.8), and third-highest QB rating (105.1) keeps Rush playable in two-QB leagues and as a longshot DFS Turkey Day dart. … Back at the forefront of Dallas’ backfield, Rico Dowdle piled up 22 touches and 98 yards on a 61% snap rate in Week 12’s upset of Washington. Enemy backs have tagged the G-Men for 5.1 yards per carry and the league’s sixth-most fantasy points. This is a rare favorable on-paper spot for Dowdle as a certified lead RB favored at home.

UPDATE: Brandin Cooks (knee) is fully expected to play against the Giants. I’m projecting him as Dallas’ No. 3 receiver behind CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert.

Despite playing hurt all season following his training camp holdout, Lamb is averaging 12.8 targets and 8.7 catches over Dallas’ last six games and netted PPR-friendly box scores of 8/93/0 and 10/67/0 in Rush’s Weeks 11-12 starts. … Jalen Tolbert has finished below 45 receiving yards in six straight games and figures to cede playing time to Brandin Cooks should Cooks (knee, I.R.) return Thursday. … In Week 12, Jalen Brooks, Jonathan Mingo, KaVontae Turpin, and Ryan Flournoy near-evenly shared Nos. 3-6 WR duties against the Commanders. Cooks would shake that up. … In Ferguson’s absence last Sunday, Luke Schoonmaker out-snapped fellow fill-in TE Brevyn Spann-Ford 43 to 33 and out-targeted Spann-Ford 4 to 2. Schoonmaker ran four more routes. Schoonmaker has played at least 40% of Dallas’ offensive snaps in three games this season, and his receiving lines in them are 6/43/0, 6/56/0, and 3/55/1. Sans Ferguson, Schoonmaker is a TE1 streamer in my book.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 24, Giants 17

8:20 PM ET Game

Miami @ Green Bay

Team Totals: Packers 25.5, Dolphins 22

Winners of three straight, the Dolphins visit Lambeau Field for Thanskgiving’s nightcap. Weather could play a role and is worth monitoring, yet Tua Tagovailoa warrants recognition for going 130-of-170 passing (76.5%) for 1,277 yards (7.5 YPA) with an 11:1 TD-to-INT ratio in five games since returning from his latest concussion. He’s fantasy’s QB7 over the last month. Packers top CB Jaire Alexander (PCL) looks unlikely to play here. … Dolphins Week 12 running back usage was shaken up by their 34-15 blowout result over New England, but De’Von Achane (13 touches, 36 snaps) kept lead duties ahead of Raheem Mostert (3, 21) and Jaylen Wright (7, 13). A flawed fourth-quarter exchange between backup QB Skylar Thompson and Wright caused a fumble the Patriots returned for a touchdown. In what profiles as a close affair, I expect Achane to resume dominating Dolphins backfield work.

Tagovailoa’s 2024 target distribution: Tyreek Hill 50; Jonnu Smith 42; Achane 39; Jaylen Waddle 35; Odell Beckham 12; Julian Hill and Mostert 11. … No longer the alpha in HC Mike McDaniel’s passing attack, Tyreek hasn’t topped 80 yards in a game since Week 1. His yards-per-reception (11.7) and yards-per-target (7.7) averages are eight-year lows. Hill’s Thanksgiving draw is obviously improved by the likely absence of Green Bay’s top cover corner, but it’s fair to wonder whether the 30-year-old still has slate-breaking upside in him. … Smith is fantasy’s overall TE1 from Week 7 until now. The Packers’ coverage against tight ends has been middling all season. … Waddle set year highs in targets (9) and Air Yards (103) in Week 12’s win over New England. A fantasy non-factor in his nine previous games, Waddle can’t be approached as more than a boom-or-bust WR3/flex gamble at Lambeau.

HC Matt LaFleur’s Packers have opted for run-heavy designs since Week 10’s bye featuring Josh Jacobs, who’s averaged 24 touches and 120 yards with four TDs in that span. Jacobs enters Week 13 ranked No. 4 in the league in carries (202) and No. 3 in rushing yards (944), while Miami will be without run-stopping ILB Anthony Walker (hamstring) here. … Jordan Love encounters a tough on-paper draw against a Fins defense permitting the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.6) and ninth-lowest passer rating (84.6). Love has been a low-volume passer for the majority of the season, and LaFleur tends to prefer to steer his game plans to attack opponent weaknesses. Miami’s pass defense has been a strength.

Week 11 standout Christian Watson goose-egged in Week 12, dropping a would-be 49-yard touchdown in the second quarter against San Francisco. In fairness to Watson, it was his first drop all season, and Watson still paced Packers WRs in snaps played and routes run. With Romeo Doubs (concussion) on the shelf, Watson is virtually assured of another near-full-time role versus Miami. … Jayden Reed still leads Green Bay in receptions (34), yards (559), and catch rate (79%) on Love’s 2024 throws. Yet Reed’s recent rushing usage is way down, and he’s drawn three targets or fewer in three of the Packers’ last four games. Reed is a somewhat enigmatic fantasy commodity with proven big-game capability. … In Doubs’ probable Week 13 absence, my guess is Dontayvion Wicks will bookend Watson in three-receiver packages with Reed in the slot and Bo Melton working as Green Bay’s No. 4. This isn’t a plus spot, but Wicks has consistently commanded targets in his year-and-a-half career. … Tucker Kraft has drawn just three combined targets in two weeks since Green Bay’s bye. Kraft has cleared 35 receiving yards once over the Packers’ last six games.

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Dolphins 24