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This episode digs into one of my favorite books of all time: The Big Change by Frederick Lewis Allen. Written in 1952, it's a remarkable look at how quickly the world can change, with so many profound insights that I find relevant today. Special thanks to my friends at Readwise.io for making this happen.…
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There's a Russian saying that I love: "The past is more unpredictable than the future." It explains so much about nostalgia, and the twisted ways we all view the economic past. This episode is brought to you by my friends at 10 East – an investment platform for sophisticated investors to access private markets. To learn more visit 10east.co.…
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A lot of mistakes in life come when you think risk is something caused by external forces, when in fact the weight of your own success is enough to pull you down without any outside help. This episode is brought to you by my friends at 10 East – an investment platform for sophisticated investors to access private markets. To learn more visit 10east…
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The ultimate success metric is whether you get what you want out of life. But that’s harder than it sounds because it’s easy to try to copy someone who wants something you don’t. This episode is brought to you by my friends at 10 East – an investment platform for sophisticated investors to access private markets. To learn more visit 10east.co.…
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Jeff Bezos once said there are different kinds of smart. Distinguishing the various flavors is important because if you think smarts comes in just one form, you’ll miss dozens of other nuanced varieties. BS is the same. It comes in countless forms, some harder to spot than others. False modesty, projecting, double standards, hypocrisy, tugging at h…
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"Nature is not in a hurry, yet everything is accomplished,” said Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu. Giant sequoias, advanced organisms, towering mountains – it builds the most jaw-dropping features of the universe. And it does so silently, where growth is almost never visible right now but staggering over long periods of time. It’s quiet compounding, and…
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My deepest forecasting belief is that you can better understand the future if you focus on the behaviors that never change instead of the events that might. And those behaviors have a common denominator: They follow the path of least resistance of people trying to simplify a complex world into a few stories that make sense and make them feel good a…
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Every great idea can be taken too far. Take the notion that investors should ignore the short run. It's important to recognize that the long run is just a collection of short runs, and capturing long-term growth means managing the short run effectively enough to ensure you can stick around for a long time.…
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Hacks are hard because shortcuts rarely exist. Prizes take time and effort. The personal finance industry – filled with advice that sounds and feels good without moving the needle – needs to recognize this. These aren’t fun hacks, but no one said this was easy.Morgan Housel による
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Luck plays such a big role in the world. But few people want to talk about it. If I say you got lucky, I look jealous. If I tell myself that I got lucky, I feel diminished. Maybe a better way to frame luck is by asking: what isn’t repeatable? And maybe better yet: The way to get luckier is to find what’s repeatable.…
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Woodrow Wilson was the only president with a Ph.D. in political science. He came to office having thought more about how a government functions than most before him or since. One of his complaints was that too many people in government held the belief that it was a Big Machine: that once you set up a series of rules you could take your hands off th…
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Mae West said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” That might be true for some things – health, happiness, golden retrievers, maybe. But in so many cases the thing that helps you can be taken to a dangerous level. And since it’s a “good thing,” not an obvious threat, its danger creeps into your life unnoticed. Take intelligence. How could …
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This episode discusses my take on what you should pay attention to when reading history. There’s a quote I love from writer Kelly Hayes who says, “Everything feels unprecedented when you haven’t engaged with history.” It’s so true. History’s cast of characters changes but it’s the same movie over and over again. To me, the point of paying attention…
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Behavioral finance is now well documented. But most of the attention goes to how people invest. But the study of how you spend money might be far more interesting -- and practical. How you spend money can reveal an existential struggle of what you find valuable in life, who you want to spend time with, why you chose your career, and the kind of att…
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There’s obviously a hierarchy of information. It ranges from life-changing good to life-changing disastrous. That got me thinking: What would be the most interesting and useful information anyone could get their hands on? Years ago I asked that question to Yale economist Robert Shiller. “The exact role of luck in successful outcomes,” he answered. …
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There are two big ways to learn: Active learning: Someone tells you what to learn, how to learn it, on a set schedule, on pre-selected standardized topics. Passive learning: You let your mind wander with no intended destination. You read and learn broadly, talk to people from various backgrounds, and stumble haphazardly across topics you had never …
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One sentence that knocked me off my feet when I read Will and Ariel Durant’s The Lessons of History was: "Learn enough from history to bear reality patiently, and respect one another’s delusions." I love that so much. The key here is accepting that everyone is deluded in their own unique way. You, me, all of us. When you realize that you – the good…
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My wife recently bought me an old book. It's called The Mathematical Theory of Investment. It was written in 1913 and it's as dry and boring as it sounds (but the old weathered cover looks awesome on a bookshelf). I flipped through it and thought, "Does any of this matter?" These formulas, these charts, this data? Well, yes. But not nearly as much …
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Expiring skills tend to get more attention. They’re more likely to be the cool new thing, and a key driver of an industry’s short-term performance. They’re what employers value and employees flaunt. Permanent skills are different. They’ve been around a long time, which makes them look stale and basic. They can be hard to define and quantify, which …
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My new book, Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes, is out today. Books are hard, a multi-year slog from start to finish. But I’m excited for you to read this. I think it’s the best writing I’ve ever done. And it was fun to write! My hope is that you enjoy reading it half as much as I enjoyed writing it. My first book, The Psychology of Money…
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All optimistic beliefs can be dangerous because they’re so comforting, so easy to accept without asking further questions. Hope often masquerades as optimism when you think things will improve only because the alternative is too scary to contemplate. Every optimist needs to justify exactly why they're optimistic. In this episode, I offer my own thr…
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Daniel Kahneman says, "The long-term success of a relationship depends far more on avoiding the negative than on seeking the positive." It's like that in so many areas of life. Most people know what they're good at, or at least they think they do. Flaws, though, tend to be nuanced, and we're often blind to them. This episode shares dozens of little…
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Measuring wealth is easy. You just count it up. Measuring some of the downsides of wealth is so much harder and more nuanced. They can be so nuanced and hard to measure that many people won’t even believe they exist. A downside to wealth? How could that possibly be? Let me propose that the absurdity of talking about the downside of wealth is part o…
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Just after my son was born I wrote a few things I thought he’d find helpful as an adult. One of them was: "You might think you want an expensive car, a fancy watch, and a huge house. But I’m telling you, you don’t. What you want is respect and admiration from other people, and you think having expensive stuff will bring it. It almost never does – e…
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A truth that applies to almost every field is that it’s possible to try too hard, and when doing so you can get worse results than those who knew less, cared less, and put in less effort than you did. There are mistakes that only an expert can make. Errors – often catastrophic – that novices aren’t smart enough to make because they lack the informa…
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All greed starts with an innocent idea: that you are right, deserve to be right, and are owed something for the efforts you put into establishing your beliefs and opinions. It’s a reasonable feeling. But it sets off a chain reaction that leads to an inevitable boom-and-bust cycle. This episode explores one of the most important topics in investing:…
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This episode is about the difference between intelligence and smarts, and why one is valued more than the other despite being less useful in the world. The core here is realizing that people are not spreadsheets. They are emotional, hormonal, misinformed, status-seeking, insecure creatures trying their best to make it through the day. So if you hav…
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I think there’s an “ideal” net worth for everyone, when money not only stops bringing pleasure but becomes a social liability. And that number is probably lower than most people think. A subtle problem with money is that assets are easy to measure but liabilities can be hidden. Measuring assets is simple. But how do you measure losing your privacy?…
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Chris Rock joked that Bill Gates would jump out the window if he woke up with Oprah’s money. Like most comedy, it’s funny because it contains a nugget of truth. There is no objective level of wealth -- everything is just relative to something, or someone, else. That means a billionaire can feel poorer than someone with infinitely less money. This e…
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A weird thing in life is that everyone strives for a good life because they think it will make them happy. But what actually brings happiness is the contrast between what you have now and whatever you were just doing. The best drink you will ever taste is a glass of tap water when you’re thirsty. The best food you will ever eat is fast food when yo…
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The knee-jerk way to set expectations is to anchor to what everyone else has right now. But imagine the tragedy of there being unbelievable progress throughout your life and you enjoy none of it because you expected all of it. This episode is all about expectations, and how the key to happiness in so many things in life is to aim low.…
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Sometimes the best you can do when learning about any topic is to memorize a few short stories -- quick, direct, and to the point, that you're likely to remember forever. This episode shares 15 short stories that have stuck with me, and helped me contextualize so many things in life, work, and investing. One other note: I have a new book coming out…
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There are so many times in life where what you do is less important than how long you've been doing it for. It's true in careers. It's true in relationships. It's true in sports. And it's true with money. This episode is about compounding -- and how staying put, uninterrupted, is often the most overlooked skill.…
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If you can explain something important in just a few words, it's a double win: You've probably found something that's obviously true, without needing further explanation or detail. And it's probably something you'll remember for a long time, easy to recall without having to memorize dozens of details. This podcast is a smattering of ideas that have…
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This episode has little to do with money. But in some ways it has everything to do with money. That's the riddle I want to unpack. I want to share a bunch of examples of what one field can teach us about another. What can we learn from biology that teaches us something about money? What can we learn from physics that teaches us something about busi…
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One of the most complicated topics in money: How it impacts your family. Your spouse. Your kids. How do you avoid spoiling kids? How do you and your spouse learn to agree about the best way to spend? There are no easy answers -- but I try my best here, including sharing the letters I wrote to my kids when they were born.…
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The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say, “I can do whatever I want today.” People want to become wealthier to make them happier. Happiness is a complicated subject because everyone’s different. But if there’s a common denominator in happiness -- a universal fuel of joy -- it’s that people want to control their liv…
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There is no world where two equally smart and informed people should agree on the best way to save, spend, and invest money. Everyone is different. What you want might not be what I want. What’s fun to you might be miserable to me. Your family’s different from mine. Your job’s different from mine. You have different life experiences than I do, diff…
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This episode covers a hard topic about money: What you want more than anything is everything you can't have. Your brain doesn’t want stuff. It doesn’t even want new stuff. It wants to engage in the process and anticipation of getting new stuff. The change, not the amount, is what matters. When it comes to happiness and money, it's not about how muc…
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