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Welcome to our daily podcast featuring the day's top news commentary and technical recommendations delivered to you before the opening bells of the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX).Alongside our morning podcasts, we will be publishing a collection of episodes presenting indepth analysis and insights on EGX's equities, all brought to you by Al Ahly Pharos.
 
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Pitch: ADIB| The Rising Star; Upgrade FV to EGP 28.50/share. The bank is currently trading at 0.9x P/B23 and 5.0x P/E23 on net profit post minority and appropriations of EGP 2.2 billion (growth of 24% y/y). Our FV is EGP 28.50/share on 500 million shares, post the conclusion of the final round of capital increase. The stock is the second most liqui…
 
Egypt's external debt declined during the third quarter of last year by about USD720 million, to record USD154.98 billion, which is the second consecutive quarterly decline. Egypt joining the BRICS’ New Development Bank is raising hopes that this might help reduce demand for USD in the economy, as bank members can use their local currencies in bila…
 
S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Egypt’s B credit rating with a stable outlook. Prime Minister announced in a speech to reporters the following: 1) The backlog of imported goods at Egyptian ports has been cleared. 2) The government will in two weeks reveal the details of the state-owned firms it plans to offer on the EGX this year. 3) The government…
 
ORHD| A Dollar-Denominated Asset That Is Still Cheap. ORHD offers solid sales, exposure to the revival in tourism, diversified revenue mix (real estate, hotels, town management), sizable recurring income (hotels, town management), large residual land bank (around 25.0 million sqm), unique product offering (El Gouna, Makadi Heights, Taba Heights), s…
 
The Egyptian government held an extended meeting with the World Bank, on Sunday, to discuss the country's financing package. The portfolio between Egypt and the World Bank is c.USD 6.8 billion. Al Mal Newspaper reported that several international institutions decided to invest in Egyptian sovereign debt instruments, including Goldman Sachs and JP M…
 
The government has signed a fresh USD1.5 bn financing agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) to fund energy and basic commodities imports. The Supply Ministry is set to finalize the “fair prices” of a number of food and consumer commodities this month, to clamp down on price gouging amid soaring inflation. The cou…
 
Emerging-market equity and bond funds saw a record USD12.7 bn in inflows last week as China’s relaxation of its covid-19 curbs continues to drive optimism. Foreign investors are once again looking at Egypt’s debt market on the back of a cheaper EGP and record-high yield. The Bank of Russia last week approved the EGP as a trade currency, raising hop…
 
The Prime Minister announced the approval of new 11% subsidized loans for industry and agriculture. Current backlog of imported goods at ports stands at some USD5.3 billion, of which USD 3 billion is pending documents from importers rather than hard currency to be released. Egypt’s total exports grew by 20% YoY in 2022 to register USD53.8 billion, …
 
Banque du Caire is now offering a one-year, 25% certificate of deposit. Real estate tax revenues reached EGP3.1 billion during 1H22/23. The Ministry of Transport and the Spanish train manufacturer, Talgo, are considering establishing a new company to localize the train manufacturing industry in Egypt. According to Fitch Ratings, Egyptian banks’ reg…
 
The Central Bank announced of an upswing in foreign inflows to local banks through the local foreign exchange market and other sources in recent days. Foreign investors poured some USD925 million into our local foreign exchange market in three days. The two state-owned banks will withdraw within days the one-year, 25% certificates of deposit they i…
 
-Egyptian Banks: Love at the time of macro challenges. Egyptian banks are delivering ROEs north of 20%, and most of them are trading below book values. Most banks that got acquired in Egypt recently witnessed transaction multiples that are double those seen amongst listed banks. Treasury investments will present a good opportunity to park excess li…
 
United States inflation slowed to its lowest level in a year in December, to 6.5% from 7.1% in November, largely on the back of falling gas prices, raising hopes that this will prompt the US central bank to again slow the pace of rate hikes in its coming meeting to 25 bps on February 1. Signs that inflation may have peaked in the US and that moneta…
 
Pitch: Do Not Ignore Laggards; Money Rotation Will Eventually Happen. In 2017, all well-managed company stocks have gone up significantly post-flotation, even the ones that were negatively exposed to a weaker local currency. Some ideas: ORHD, CNFN, EKHOA, CICH, MCRO, QNBA, CIEB, JUFO, ISPH, CANA, CLHO, EAST, ADIB Core inflation which strips out vol…
 
Prime Minister has issued a number of regulations for state bodies to rationalize public expenditure amid the ongoing global economic crisis. Any new national projects that require significant FX expenditure, and where construction has yet to begin, will be delayed, according to the decision. Any FX spending at all by the ministries in question and…
 
Pitch: FX-Sensitive Stocks: How high can we fly? Since the market has been over-rewarding FX-sensitive stocks (naturally), it is only logical to ask ourselves the question of how high those stock prices can go. We assume that an FX rate of EGP35-40/USD as an average over the five-year period (2023-2027) and check the impact on fair values. Conclusi…
 
The MPC will meet today to decide on policy rates in Egypt. We think inflationary pressures accompanied by the weakening FX and general risk aversion attitude by investors towards the EMs in general, and, more importantly, commitments implied by the IMF loan might induce the CBE to respond by a potential considerable hike, maybe 200bps. According t…
 
Around 4,000 expats have submitted requests to import vehicles under the government scheme, which will likely provide the state just USD62 million. An Egyptian-Dutch JV will build and manage a grain logistics hub at Alexandria port, under an MoU signed yesterday between the two companies and Alexandria Port Authority. The Suez Canal Authority (SCA)…
 
The IMF will be watching for a shift by Egypt to a flexible exchange rate after a requirement to finance imports through letters of credit is phased out at the end of this month. The Suez Canal Authority expects revenues to rise 15% to hit a record USD8 billion in FY2022-2023. The SCA will continue granting dry bulk ships moving between West Africa…
 
Gold exporters will need to receive payment into a bank account within 10 days of making a sale or face being blacklisted by the banking sector under new rules announced by the CBE. The Supply Ministry has set up a committee to determine the fair price of 10-15 kind of foods classed as strategic commodities amid soaring inflation. The Parliament vo…
 
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