Gambling on the future: decentralized prediction markets


Manage episode 274306637 series 2562963
著作 Naomi Brockwell の情報はPlayer FM及びコミュニティによって発見されました。著作権は出版社によって所持されます。そして、番組のオーディオは、その出版社のサーバから直接にストリーミングされます。Player FMで購読ボタンをタップし、更新できて、または他のポッドキャストアプリにフィードのURLを貼り付けます。
There’s this idea of wisdom of the crowds, where if you poll enough people you’ll eventually converge upon the truth. But people are quick to give opinions, and not too careful with those opinions when they’re cost-free. What if you ask them to bet money on their answers? Things start to get a little more interesting. It turns out that when people have skin in the game, they are usually more careful with their opinions. This is what makes betting markets so interesting. But rather than harnessing the power of prediction markets, the US started targeting them. Enter decentralized prediction markets, like Augur, with no middlemen or gatekeepers. They allow consenting individuals to voice their opinions whilst laying money on the line. I explain how they work, and why they could be an incredibly powerful tool for predicting the future. By C. Edward Kelso and Naomi Brockwell Visit Augur: Learn more about DARPA’s proposed prediction markets: DARPA’s announcement of closure: See the current odds from centralized betting markets across the world: If you would like to send me a message and support my channel, visit Sign up for the free cryptobeat newsletter here: Sign up for the members-only newsletter here and get access to exclusive content by becoming a member of NBTV! Note: This episode was not sponsored in any way by Augur. I just like decentralized things.

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