Since Javier Milei took office in December, life has become even more difficult in Argentina. Real salaries have fallen by more than 20% since December. Inflation has lowered, but is still running high, above 270% on an annual basis. Yet Milei’s approval rating is still around 50%. In today's episode we discuss with pollster and political strategis…

Brazil's economy performed better than expected last year, expanding almost 3%. But in 2024 the outlook is more complex, as last year's sources of growth are not expected to perform in the same way. There is also a tug of war inside the Lula administration about public spending and government oversight in national oil company Petrobras. In this epi…

The Venezuelan dictatorship is preparing to hold an election on July 28th. Despite signs that the race will not be free or fair, the opposition is willing to participate. In this episode, we dive into the motives and tactics on both sides. What is Maduro looking for, and is there a real chance he could lose? What is going on behind the curtains wit…

Organized crime has in recent years begun to affect formerly calm countries like Chile and Ecuador, while remaining strong in places such as Mexico and Brazil. In this episode, an analysis of recent crime trends in the region. We’ll also assess how governments have been responding – some choose to disengage altogether, while others toughen their ap…

Less than three months away from Mexico's elections, many analysts see it as a given that Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner, is likely to win. Sheinbaum’s biggest asset is the endorsement of the current president, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, who seems to be transferring his popularity to her candidacy. But there are still a lot of …

The goal of building ties between global south countries has driven foreign policy in Latin America and elsewhere in recent years. In this episode we dive into what that has amounted to. What have been the most successful examples of cooperation between Latin America and other global south countries? Which presidents have prioritized this, and what…

Political instability persists in Peru. This week, Prime Minister Alberto Otarola resigned and Congress is expected to decide if it will remove the members of the Junta Nacional de Justicia, a body that helps select the composition of the judiciary. This is just the latest in a crisis that has been running for years – Peru famously has had six pres…

Since he took office in January 2023 Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been extremely active on the global stage, traveling frequently and offering himself as a mediator on big issues like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. At times he has stirred controversy, as …

LGBTQ+ rights have been a political battleground between social conservatives and progressives throughout Latin America. While some countries set the standards for greater freedoms at the beginning of the century, a backlash has recently been gaining ground in some portions of the Western Hemisphere. No doubt, the situation is complex. Today, in ou…

Javier Milei came into office in Argentina promising radical changes. Once there, Milei moved quickly and aggressively – through decrees and an “omnibus” bill sent to Congress he pushed changes to more than 300 laws. While the decrees are still valid, the omnibus bill failed to get approved. On today’s podcast we’ll try to take stock of where Argen…

Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee, and polls show him with a chance of winning the election in November. With that in mind, in this episode we try to gauge what Trump 2.0 would entail for U.S. policy toward Latin America. Our guest is the former U.S. ambassador to the OAS (Organization of American States) under Trump, Carlos Trujil…

Ecuador has become a critical front in the battle against criminal groups in Latin America. The country's 36-year-old president, Daniel Noboa, has tried to exert authority by arresting thousands of people, pushing for a 'war tax' and calling for a referendum on security matters. Can he succeed? And how is the political landscape likely to evolve in…

Eight years ago, a consortium led by ExxonMobil discovered offshore oil in Guyana now believed to total at least 11 billion barrels. As a result, Guyana now has more oil reserves per capita than any other country in the world — almost three times as much as Saudi Arabia. This colossal find has led to difficult questions about whether the country ca…

The images coming out of Ecuador in the past week were just the latest reminder of the extraordinary power of drug cartels in Latin America. Despite efforts by many governments, the production of cocaine in the region continues to soar, and criminal groups have diversified their practices. In this episode, a look at how leaders around Latin America…

In 2023 Latin America’s economies performed better than analysts expected. 2024 also promises growth, although the picture will vary a lot by country. On today’s podcast, we’ll look at which may perform better, which will do worse, what factors could determine success or failure and what may be the impact of elections, which are set to take place i…

When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in January 2023, the challenges ahead of him loomed large. A year on, the economy has grown more than expected, at 3%, and his administration has passed a historic tax reform. Nevertheless, the executive's relationship with Brazil's conservative, transactional congress remains a reason for concern. In this…

Post-electoral tensions in Guatemala and the territorial spat between Guyana and Venezuela have the Western Hemisphere on alert. We speak to someone uniquely positioned to provide insight into these crises and reflect on how the international community is reacting. Frank Mora is the U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), the …

One year on from the political crisis that engulfed Peru in December 2022, with protests almost daily on the streets of Lima, the country is still facing a staggering number of risks in both politics and the economy. 12 months after then-President Pedro Castillo tried to illegally dissolve Congress and was removed from office, his replacement, Dina…

Since being elected on November 19, Javier Milei has changed the tone of some of the more radical policy proposals he campaigned on. He has backtracked on his aggressive rhetoric toward some of Argentina’s largest trading partners, such as Brazil. He has suggested that dollarization may occur not soon. And he had a cordial conversation with Pope Fr…

This past week, we started to get a sense of what Mexico's June 2024 general elections will look like. Samuel García, the young governor of Nuevo León, Mexico's industrial powerhouse, announced he will run, while former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who was seen as a possible aspirant, said he will not. Although García’s candidacy is seen as a l…

Chile’s new constitutional proposal is ready and will be put to a plebiscite on Dec. 17. The document was received earlier week by President Gabriel Boric after a mostly right-wing Constitutional Council drafted the text. This episode does a political overview of the country. We discuss what this new constitution would change, if approved, and look…

After a decade of negative or meager economic expansion, Brazil's GDP is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2023. Significant reforms, such as tax reform, are being discussed, and a modern, green economy could take hold. How successfully is the Lula government handling the economic challenges, and which areas will benefit the most? In this episode, Ar…

Amid Argentina's worst economic crisis in more than 20 years, the self-described anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei will now face Economy Minister Sergio Massa in a December 19 runoff to become Argentina’s next president. Both are fighting to attract voters from other candidates’ camps. Can Milei win over moderate voters? Can the governing coalition p…

In this special edition of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, an interview with Juan S. Gonzalez, the White House's top Latin America official, about the potentially transformative deal announced this week between the U.S. and Venezuela. The U.S. is partially lifting economic sanctions that have been in place for several years on Nicolás Maduro's regi…

After a “lost decade” that saw economies stagnate across Latin America and the Caribbean, a new optimism appears to take hold in some areas. 2023 will be the third consecutive year the IMF and other multilateral institutions have raised their growth forecasts for the region after they proved too pessimistic. Foreign direct investment soared 55% las…