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We analyze the risks of markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future. We generate actionable ideas with clear risk reward and position size. We have a solid track record of forecasting major change, such as Biden’s election and its implications, China’s yuan rally, plus the crude oil and Covid crashes.
 
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I had a chance conversation with a Ukrainian scientist today, with whom I shared my reasoning as to why the Ukrainian war is being fought and how it can be resolved. My views are unconventional and quite contrary to the prevailing winds, but as she liked them so much, and as they may be helpful to unwind a dangerous and contentious problem, I made …
 
The Australian government initiated a strict two-week lockdown in Sydney this week and its news service laid bare the significant risks of the Delta Variant, implying a much higher risk than is being made clear by governments in Western Europe or the US. We believe the Australian report to be solid as they have a very open, cohesive society.The exc…
 
We are keen to be short Nasdaq futures mainly because its dominant Big Tech names have been the biggest beneficiaries of price appreciation during the Trump Administration and during the Pandemic. Hence, it’s only logical that when the Fed’s protective bubble is unwound that we should expect the Big Tech sector to also continue falling when the Tru…
 
The decline in US 10 Year yield is a decent confirmation of our bearish US equities view so we are putting on an 84% Nasdaq 100 futures short in the Leveraged Aggressive Model Portfolio.If we are wrong, then Leveraged Aggressive will lose 69 basis points on a 104% gross short position. www.macroesg.com #macroesg #gregbeier @gregbeier #susarb --- Se…
 
1. COVID Risk Increasing News of Covid success in the United States and UK is masking much bigger problems. News reports estimate that 30,000 people are dying a day in India. Covid is still spreading out across the developing world and Asia (Tokyo and Melbourne on lockdown). 2. Variant Risk Increasing The risk of a super variant that current vaccin…
 
NB: This is an update to the January 12, 2021 piece “Social Media is a Solid Short” on MacroESG.com. When Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, called out Facebook’s business model as being a social liability for humanity, he put a cap on the stock price. Trade location: Facebook shorts should be made against the high of this day. While the market power is so su…
 
The time has come to short social media which means Facebook and Twitter as they’ve been the engines of the political controversy.After last week’s attack on Capitol Hill, the Congress has impeached the President for a record second time and will certainly reign in his tool of power - social media.The Russell 2000 Small Cap index is up ~20% since t…
 
America’s Two Greatest Threats…The two greatest threats to America’s national security are: Money influencing policy; andPolarized politics.…Creates Global RiskWhen money in politics creates a split America – then this is the worst possible path for the United States to follow. And this endangers free and open societies around the world, as the US …
 
We are at a historic moment in the history of the United States. As MacroESG has been writing for some time, the Trump administration is fitting the historical analog of the two previous presidencies, Hoover and Carter, that preceded their respective transformational presidencies, FDR and Reagan. This means that Joe Biden is going to be a transform…
 
Blue Wave is CompleteThe election of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in the Georgia Senate run-off elections has completed the Blue Wave. Macro ESG Called It Months AgoMacro ESG called on July 23 in “Macro ESG Daily: We Are At an Inflection Point” that "...the Senate is going to fall to the Democrats too. It’s going to be a political Armageddon." An…
 
In spite of these dire facts and likely projections, because the Fed has pushed so much money into the system, giving Airbnb a sky-high valuation on day one, and because of the vaccine - nothing is going to come down.Equites are looking through the winter at the rebound that will come in the summer from economic activity snapping back. The stock ma…
 
Bad Virus News Wins GeorgiaI expect that on January 5th the news will be so bad about the pandemic across the country that voters are going to say – No, we are not going to support a party whose President said covid was all going away, was protected in the Senate, and who did not move on covid relief until they had to for their own political intere…
 
In summary, the US dollar’s value is determined by S - Social assessment (class and race divisions) which is primarily determined by its G - Government assessment (capability and leadership).Investment and Trading PlanIf a surprise event comes up - like a bad ending to the war in Afghanistan - that leads to protests in the US and a decline in the S…
 
I am pleased to announce that MacroESG is now the research product of Sustainability Arbitrage LLC, a company that I founded. Macroesg.com will be the research portal for Sustainability Arbitrage. I believe that a significant surprise event likely to happen in 2021 will be the massacre by the Taliban of mid-level and low-level collaborators in Kabu…
 
Bet big on policy changes that ignite paradigm shifts. The best ideas are clear wins based on clear incentives to people in power: The less obvious, the better. Trade the spread between policy change and emotionalism. Betting on policy change is a lot more predictable than emotionalism: Determines risk-reward.Analyze the drivers of global power dyn…
 
“If Pope Francis reaches out to other leaders of major religions and encourages them to join, the Council for Inclusive Capitalism could build an alliance large enough around the world together with businesses and investors that could push through systemic transformations required to meet the challenges of our time - particularly with the arrival o…
 
Macro ESG made a high conviction call on June 14th that Joe Biden would win the election with clear, sensible reasons (hence, the bullseye graphic above).Macro ESG then went on to lay out an investment plan that would work in a Biden administration and beyond.Macro ESG has taken the liberty to simply duplicate the original piece from June 14, 2020 …
 
Simple – Jack Ma threatened the systems of patronage that are at the heart of the Chinese banking system.When he threatened to disrupt the entire financial system, he threatened everyone who either controls the banks or depends on the banks for their survival.As China may very well be a house of cards of leverage, Jack Ma’s statements ultimately th…
 
The PresidencyAt 264 Electoral College votes, if Joe Biden wins Nevada tomorrow (which Hilary Clinton won in 2016), then Mr. Biden is the President. The SenateThe Senate is still winnable via Georgia run-offs in January and worsening pandemic. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message…
 
Buy dollars on dips with tight stops if Mr. Biden is on track to win the election.Sell dollars on rallies with tight stops if Mr. Trump is on track to win the election.Buy RMB and Chinese government debt - only invest what you can afford to lose as the entire investment could get locked up in unexpected military and diplomatic machinations. www.mac…
 
The states with the highest turnouts tells an interesting story of what is really happening:108.3% Texas90.8%. Florida95%. North Carolina86.5% Arizona89.6%. Tennessee As I have written in Biden Wins it with Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, these above states may be about to flip to the Democrats - locking in Joe Biden’s presidency without any …
 
For long-only investors, exit the platform tech names that now account for about one-fifth of the S&P500’s market cap. For long-short investors, time to think about which pairs make sense in the new world that is coming with the Trump loss. I’ll put a few ideas together and roll them out when I’ve conviction in them.The next bull market will not be…
 
The Republican Senators commitment to no new fiscal stimulus plan is driving the equity market lower, particularly as the coronavirus wave picks up in Europe and the US.A lower equity market will hurt support for Republican candidates, as many Republicans planned to vote on Election Day.The Biden win will secure a seismic shift in the US towards a …
 
The Republican Senators commitment to no new fiscal stimulus plan will drive the equity market lower.A lower equity market will hurt the median voter and will drive down support for Republican candidates.This will push yields lower in US government bonds and create fait accompli for Biden’s win amongst institutional investors who will treat the new…
 
The next wave of the virus is starting to hit the northern hemisphere.While the world is better prepared, the infection levels are likely to be greater than during the earlier wave. Please see the charts of projections of deaths and infections from the respected (and to date accurate forecasters) at the University of Washington at Seattle.For long …
 
Actionable Ideas: Keep a sharp eye on the RMB, the Korean won, the Taiwanese dollar, the Philippine peso, and the Malaysian ringgit. Similarly, monitor the large non-bloc nations of India, Japan, Indonesia, and Australia. Pay close attention to statements from China seeking to tighten the bloc and harm non-bloc states like China’s threat today that…
 
Goldman’s US dollar view is wrong on a Joe Biden win and the vaccine. Why?The US dollar weakened under Trump’s divisive leadership. Logic suggests it would therefore rally on the US coming together. Biden’s decades of bipartisan experience and bipartisan support would translate to a stronger dollar (barring, of course, more civil disturbances from …
 
In areas of high Trump support, I’ve noticed substantially higher disregard for wearing masks in enclosed public areas. This combined with higher obesity rates as well as weaker public health care systems are creating a perfect storm for an acceleration of the pandemic in these areas.If infections rise in Trump areas before the election, this could…
 
The recent rise in US government bond yields on the longer end (7 to 30 years) indicates investors are already buying into the Biden win and $2+ trillion of green infrastructure spend (I was completely wrong here, expecting the Long Bond to fall to a zero yield {pls see Trump Leads the US to a New Low in Global Norms} in a rush to safety during a h…
 
Following the Dictator’s Handbook, to show strength, President Trump made a big return to the White House last night in a last-ditch effort to garner media attention.Equities and oil are a short as Trump seeks to motivate his base to get out the vote through fomenting fear and bad news via declaring that the stimulus deal is off until after he wins…
 
The IMF today threw off the shackles of caution and encouraged governments to take on debt and pursue green infrastructure development.Green bonds are going to become core institutional holdings to fund this leap.The hydrocarbon business is about to collapse - transfer payments are going to be essential to ensure that these workers can transition t…
 
If Donald Trump becomes intubated or dies from COVID-19, then it is likely that: Trump’s underlings and the Republican Party will quickly abandon him and his party of one ethos. The election: Republican Senators in weak seats will likely defect to the Democrats, and Seek to quickly approve a stimulus deal which would be very bullish for the the US …
 
The US dollar will trade inversely to President Trump’s fortunes. If the election isn’t resolved through an overwhelming win for Biden on election night like I expect, get short the US dollar until the Supreme Court resolves the scenario. If Donald Trump starts to really slump in the polls, then look to get short the US dollar as he’ll likely engag…
 
I just spent a month using a Bloomberg intensively to see if it could do the trick to help with Macro ESG. And it didn’t work. Why? Specifically, the data sets that are required to think about Macro ESG are varied and intense. For example, I was doing an analysis of Angela Merkel’s refugee policy decisions which - inevitably - leads one to study Ge…
 
Summary: Republicans and Democrats are each stalling fiscal stimulus to either support or hurt Donald Trump in different ways and influence the result of the election. President Trump attempted to protect himself politically with an executive order to supplement unemployment insurance and win support with the electorate. The US stimulus political b…
 
Summary: China is likely preparing the RMB to rally along with the stock market. Perhaps China is doing a deal with the non-China SWF’s – which would make sense. Governments talking to governments – building strategic alliances of capital and trade – new blood brothers. These new alliances of “mutually assured growth and political control” will hav…
 
Sustainable Future Outlook: But there is a risk to thinking that China will seriously act at all in any time in the near future on climate change. As China is likely to build itself up strategically through creating a “hard” currency by recycling its energy spending with its energy suppliers into rising RMB against the dollar and a rising equity ma…
 
Summary: As I pointed out in #1 of 6: Dollar Hinges on Election Post Stimulus Self Destruction, the US dollar will trade entirely based on policy and that will be determined by the election. An examination of Foreign Exchange Holdings (“FXH”) of US dollars as reserve currency data from the IMF from the perspective of US political parties and presid…
 
Summary: Advanced economies typically led major changes in the US dollar versus emerging economies, when compared from the starting point of freely trading fiat currencies in 1971. For the first time since the dollar went off of the gold standard, advanced economies are losing their power to lead the value of the USD. Now the future of the dollar i…
 
In this sixth piece of the series, I attempt to put all of the pieces together. This is a game for the US to lose. If American politics – the “G” of macro ESG fails in a stimulus spending appropriations failure – then then US markets could take a deep hit. American elites might find themselves pushed into a corner so America may respond with inciti…
 
Introduction: This strategic investment piece is an overview of a collection of ideas which will be broken out into a series of long-form pieces with more data and sources to explore and flesh out the theses presented here. While not yet polished, I hope that these points here will be helpful to you.Why Did China Fail to Evolve?Crude Oil and Market…
 
The Macro ESG forecast on June 14th in “Global Investing Post Trump” was that Joe Biden would win the presidency, “oil would become a stranded asset,” and the “move to renewable energy becomes a global goal.”The Financial Times reports today in The Big Read article “Biden gambles on placing climate change at heart of US energy policy” that Biden is…
 
Belarus’s recent instability is a product of international oil politics and the poor public health response of the European and American democracies to the pandemic combined with an aging autocrat that didn’t deliver much in the way of benefits to his people. This is a prime example of global power dynamics at work and the events in Belarus are a b…
 
The similarities between what happened in Beirut and what is happening with climate change and biodiversity collapse are striking. Like Beirut, the world has a bomb of climate change and biodiversity collapse risk metaphorically sitting in a warehouse by the port too and, literally, nobody wants to deal with it. Many complaints have been filed with…
 
China will strike back. There is no doubt about it. President Xi’s power rests on his aggressive call to action to the Party’s cadres to be bold. He can’t back down from any challenge to his authority - foreign or domestic. He can - however - bide his time so long as his supporters are confident that he will act, then he is safe. But the gloves are…
 
President Trump just this evening ordered that US firms stop doing business with TikTok and WeChat in 45 days. This is not a surprising development. As Macro ESG has been writing this week, US mega tech (as there really isn’t a comparable entity in the EU or developed Asia) are going to become the interlocutor and guarantor of Chinese tech and medi…
 
US mega tech only gets stronger from mediating the China - US technology fight.Chinese bonds are going to drive capital flows to China - a win in the beginning.Privacy and data issues are going to become even more seriously regulated because of the China affair. Www.macroesg.com @macroesg--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/mess…
 
The Microsoft purchase of TikTok could be the new detente model for Chinese tech expansion while Trump bungles the global PR win with a colossal gaffe threatening global capitalism.Russia at risk of becoming a massive short on snake oil vaccination program.Treasuries on their way to zero yield.#macroesg www.macroesg.com--- Send in a voice message: …
 
Next moves – I expect that the guiding principal of US – China relations will be one of “reciprocity” – particularly with technology. If US newspapers can’t be sold in China – then Chinese newspapers (eg. “The People’s Daily” here in the US) will be banned from sale. If American social media companies can’t have unrestricted and unfettered access t…
 
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